Cincinnati @ Chicago picks

This is a great price on a pitcher who performs much better away from home and is averaging nearly a strikeout per inning outside of Great American Ball Park (5-3 to the over on his K prop). He has the upside to reach 8+ strikeouts, giving this play strong ceiling potential. Conditions at Wrigley are favorable, with temps around 79° and wind blowing in. The Cubs have a top-10 K% over the last 14 days, though their lower strikeout rate vs. lefties may already be priced in. He also faced the Cubs at Wrigley back in May, going 7 innings with eight Ks.

Suzuki had Tuesday off to hit the restart button, with the outfield mired in a 6-for-52 stretch at the dish with a .404 OPS. It’s an unsustainable run, and he’ll have the platoon advantage against Cincy southpaw Andrew Abbott this afternoon. Suzuki sports a team-high .371 wOBA and .258 ISO against lefties, and Abbott has outpitched his underlying metrics.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 18th-best hitter in MLB, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. In MLB, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Andrew Abbott throws from, Seiya Suzuki will have an edge today.

When assessing his BABIP talent, Elly De La Cruz is projected as the 2nd-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Elly De La Cruz is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to better offense.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the plate, Elly De La Cruz will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his strong side against Cade Horton in today's matchup.

Noelvi Marte's batting average ability is projected to be in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. In MLB, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Noelvi Marte has seen a big gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.7-mph average to last season's 87-mph figure.. Noelvi Marte has compiled a .446 Slugging Percentage (SLG) this year, grading out in the 81st percentile.

When it comes to his home run talent, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to better offense.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Among every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt McLain in the 90th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent.. Matt McLain is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to better offense.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Despite posting a .289 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Matt McLain has been unlucky given the .033 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .322.

Carson Kelly is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game.. In MLB, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Carson Kelly will have the handedness advantage over Andrew Abbott today.. Among every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. In MLB, Wrigley Field's LF dimensions are the 6th-shallowest.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Among every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.. Ian Happ will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Stephenson in the 91st percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to better offense.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Tyler Stephenson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 97.6-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal 91.6-mph figure.. Tyler Stephenson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 14% to 21.8%.

Spencer Steer is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order today, which would be an upgrade from his 59% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to better offense.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Spencer Steer pulls many of his flyballs (36.5% — 94th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Spencer Steer has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 5.5% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the past week.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 8th-best hitter in MLB.. Kyle Tucker is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to better offense.. The weather report forecasts temperatures in this game to reach the 5th-highest level on the schedule today at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Among every team in action today, the 5th-weakest infield defense is that of the Cincinnati Reds.