Kansas City @ Boston picks

Crochet will be rested after having his turn in the rotation skipped, and the American League Cy Young candidate has been lights out while pitching at least five innings in all 22 starts. He’s already picked up 12 wins to go along with a sterling 2.23 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 2.68 xFIP, and Crochet will face a poor Kansas City lineup. The Royals rank 22nd in wOBA and 27th in ISO against lefties.

Garrett Crochet over 1.5 walks allowed (+135) is today’s top-rated BB prop, projecting at 1.67 — playable down to +120. While the Red Sox have been managing his workload, he recently skipped a start and should be good for around 100 pitches here. He’s gone over this number in 6 of his last 11 starts, including 3 of the last 4. Kansas City doesn’t strike out much and ranks 13th in walk rate over the past two weeks, making this a solid plus-money spot

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 10th-best batter in the majors.. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Bobby Witt Jr. will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game.. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Vinnie Pasquantino pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.9% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Vinnie Pasquantino has made big gains with his Barrel% recently, upping his 9.1% seasonal rate to 17.6% over the last 14 days.. In the last two weeks' worth of games, Vinnie Pasquantino's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93-mph over the course of the season to 95.1-mph in recent games.

When assessing his home run ability, Salvador Perez ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Salvador Perez is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Batting from the opposite that Garrett Crochet throws from, Salvador Perez will have an advantage today.. Salvador Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Wilyer Abreu is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Wilyer Abreu will hold the platoon advantage against Ryan Bergert in today's game.. Wilyer Abreu pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Romy Gonzalez has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.. Romy Gonzalez will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.. Romy Gonzalez has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last season's 92.3-mph EV.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Bergert to throw 78 pitches in this game (least on the slate), considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup.. Edwin Moscoso profiles as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is likely to be umping in this game.. Luke Maile, the Royals's expected catcher in today's game, profiles as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Fenway Park profiles as the #2 stadium in MLB for batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, Fenway Park's LF fences are the shallowest.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Fenway Park has the shallowest right field dimensions among all major league stadiums.. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, John Rave has had bad variance on his side this year. His .269 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .300.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 10th-best batter in the majors.. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Bobby Witt Jr. will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Garrett Crochet in today's game.. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest CF dimensions in the majors.. Kyle Isbel has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 91.1-mph average in the past 7 days to his seasonal 87.5-mph EV.

When estimating his BABIP talent, Romy Gonzalez is projected as the 17th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in the league for run-scoring.. Romy Gonzalez has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.. Romy Gonzalez will possess the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.. Romy Gonzalez has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 95.1-mph average to last season's 92.3-mph EV.