Houston @ Miami picks

It's premature to suggest Sandy Alcantara is all the way back (he still has a 6.36 ERA), but he hasn't allowed an earned run over 12 innings across his last two outings. The Marlins have also been on a bit of a heater, sweeping the Yankees over the weekend to reach .500 on the season. With the Astros starting Jason Alexander (7.36 ERA in 25 2/3), Miami can jump out to an early lead and win its sixth straight even if Alcantara isn't at his peak.

Kyle Stowers has gone deep 24 times against right-handed hurlers and has also left the yard 12 times at home this year. He’s swinging the bat with real confidence, and has a cake matchup against Astros SP Jason Alexander and his 7+ ERA.

Marlins breakout star Kyle Stowers had a massive July from a power standpoint, slugging 10 round-trippers, and he's coming off a big series vs. the Yankees, where he added two more. He’ll face Astros righty Jason Alexander tonight, who has allowed five home runs in eight appearances in 2025. Three of those bombs have come off left-handed bats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Kyle Stowers will have the handedness advantage over Jason Alexander in today's game.. Kyle Stowers has strong power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jason Alexander doesn't generate many whiffs (12th percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team in action today.

Liam Hicks has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (82% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Liam Hicks will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jason Alexander in today's matchup.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team in action today.. Liam Hicks will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. In terms of plate discipline, Liam Hicks's ability is quite strong, sporting a 1.45 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 90th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 88th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jesus Sanchez is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Sandy Alcantara throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Jesus Sanchez has been cold in recent games, with his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph dropping to 89.6-mph in the past week.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (25.3) provides evidence that Jesus Sanchez has had some very poor luck this year with his 17.2 actual HR/600.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Lopez in the 95th percentile when assessing his batting average talent.. Otto Lopez is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. Otto Lopez hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team in action today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Otto Lopez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Eric Wagaman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 91st percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Eric Wagaman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Eric Wagaman has been unlucky in regards to his home runs this year; his 7.8 HR per 600 plate appearances rate is considerably lower than his 14.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

As it relates to his home run skill, Agustin Ramirez ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Agustin Ramirez is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Among all stadiums, LoanDepot Park's CF fences are the 6th-shallowest.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics across the board, and Agustin Ramirez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Agustin Ramirez has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 12.5% seasonal rate to 23.5% over the last week.

Graham Pauley will hold the platoon advantage over Jason Alexander in today's matchup.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team in action today.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Graham Pauley will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Graham Pauley has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 5.7% seasonal rate to 11.1% over the last 7 days.. Compared to his seasonal average of 16.7°, Graham Pauley has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 37.7° angle in the last 7 days.

The 3rd-worst projected offense on the slate in terms of overall offensive skill belongs to the Miami Marlins.. It is anticipated that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Lance Barrett) calling pitches in today's game.. In the league, LoanDepot Park's right field dimensions are the 4th-deepest.. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest among all major league stadiums, which often leads to worse offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof is expected to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest -8° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 96th percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Kyle Stowers will have the handedness advantage over Jason Alexander in today's game.. Kyle Stowers has strong power (96th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (29.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Jason Alexander doesn't generate many whiffs (12th percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.. The Houston Astros infield defense grades out as the weakest out of every team in action today.

Taylor Trammell will hold the platoon advantage against Sandy Alcantara in today's game.