Baltimore @ Philadelphia Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 89th percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Colton Cowser has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. Colton Cowser has made big improvements with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 12.4% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week's worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst ballpark in the game for right-handed BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to less offense. Nick Castellanos's average exit velocity has declined of late; his 87.8-mph seasonal EV has fallen to 81.1-mph over the past week. As it relates to plate discipline, Nick Castellanos's skill is quite bad, sporting a 4.19 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 17th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Citizens Bank Park as the 7th-worst ballpark in the game for right-handed BABIP. Citizens Bank Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the majors, which often leads to less offense. Trea Turner has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 6.3% seasonal rate has decreased to 0% in the last week. Trea Turner's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined recently, falling from 43.5% on the season to 25% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP skill. Jackson Holliday is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Jackson Holliday has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. The switch-hitting Dylan Carlson will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Jesus Luzardo... and even better, Luzardo has a large platoon split. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. Dylan Carlson's launch angle in recent games (13° in the past week's worth of games) is a considerable dropoff from his 17.6° seasonal mark.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Gunnar Henderson ranks as the 17th-best hitter in the game. Gunnar Henderson is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 88th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Adley Rutschman is projected to bat 4th in the batting order today. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Adley Rutschman will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Jesus Luzardo) in this game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 92nd percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Jordan Westburg is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Jordan Westburg will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo in today's matchup... and even better, Luzardo has a large platoon split.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Tyler O'Neill ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Considering Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Tyler O'Neill will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Tyler O'Neill pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Given Jesus Luzardo's large platoon split, Jeremiah Jackson will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate today. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Harrison Bader will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's game. Harrison Bader pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (37.4% — 95th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Harrison Bader will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Coby Mayo will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jesus Luzardo in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Luzardo has a large platoon split. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 5th-weakest out of all the teams on the slate today. Coby Mayo is an extreme flyball hitter and matches up with the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#1-worst on the slate today).

Bryce Harper projects as the 12th-best hitter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Bryce Harper is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Bryce Harper has a 94th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.4%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 9th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Bryce Harper will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 93rd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Otto Kemp will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats across the board, and Otto Kemp will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Edmundo Sosa in the 79th percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Cade Povich throws from, Edmundo Sosa will have an edge in today's matchup. Edmundo Sosa will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 95th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. J.T. Realmuto is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card today, which would be an upgrade from his 61% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. J.T. Realmuto will hold the platoon advantage over Cade Povich in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Schwarber ranks as the 15th-best batter in the game. Kyle Schwarber is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game. Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Kyle Schwarber will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Home runs are generally more common at fields with shallow fences, and Citizens Bank Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer Ks), and this game is expected to have the 2nd-highest temperatures of all games on the slate at 86°. Weston Wilson will hold the platoon advantage against Cade Povich in today's game. Weston Wilson will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.355) suggests that Weston Wilson has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season with his .335 actual wOBA.

Ryan Mountcastle has gone over 0.5 in 6 of his last 10 games.