Baltimore @ Chicago picks

Yes, Wrigley Field ranks among the friendliest for pitchers in the league, with the swirling wind knocking down a good deal of contact in the air, but Rea has allowed 14 homers here in 12 games. He owns a 4.33 ERA at home as opposed to a 4.12 on the road, and now he’ll have to step to a red-hot Baltimore Orioles offense, which ranks first in wRC+ over the last two weeks.

The Baltimore Orioles have 3 bats in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (via the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Alex Jackson, Coby Mayo, Colton Cowser).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Wrigley Field as the 4th-best field in the majors for strikeouts.. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast calls for the 3rd-most favorable pitching conditions on the slate today.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for pitchers.. Home field advantage generally bolsters pitcher metrics across the board, and Colin Rea will hold that advantage in today's game.

Tyler O'Neill projects as the 12th-best home run batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense.. Tyler O'Neill has big-time power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for O'Neill.. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (35.8% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

Gunnar Henderson projects as the 17th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Gunnar Henderson is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. Gunnar Henderson will have the handedness advantage against Colin Rea in today's matchup.. With a .351 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Gunnar Henderson finds himself in the 86th percentile for offensive ability.. With a .282 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year , Gunnar Henderson is positioned in the 89th percentile.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 20th-best hitter in the majors.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. The Barrel% of Seiya Suzuki has significantly improved, with an increase from 11.5% last year to 18.6% this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Westburg in the 91st percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability.. Jordan Westburg is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league.. Jordan Westburg has averaged 27.7 homers per 600 plate appearances this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 86th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage in today's game.. Dansby Swanson's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 43.8% to 48.8%.. In the past 14 days, Dansby Swanson's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 48.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 88th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Young throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an edge in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold that advantage in today's game.

Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense.. Alex Jackson has strong power (86th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (31.2% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea doesn't generate many whiffs (8th percentile K%) — great news for Jackson.. Alex Jackson pulls many of his flyballs (33.1% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. In the past two weeks, Alex Jackson's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 25% up to 26.7%.. Alex Jackson has exhibited some good exit velocity metrics lately, averaging 105.7-mph on his flyballs in the last two weeks' worth of games.

Tyler O'Neill projects as the 11th-best home run batter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Tyler O'Neill is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation among all stadiums, which generally leads to more offense.. Tyler O'Neill has big-time power (98th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (28% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea has a pitch-to-contact profile (18th percentile K%) — great news for O'Neill.. Tyler O'Neill pulls many of his flyballs (35.7% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

When it comes to his home run skill, Coby Mayo ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league.. Coby Mayo has strong power (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's always far from assured (27.5% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea has a pitch-to-contact profile (21st percentile K%) — great news for Mayo.. Coby Mayo has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 11% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last two weeks' worth of games.. In the last week's worth of games, Coby Mayo's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.7-mph over the course of the season to 97.3-mph of late.