San Francisco @ New York picks
Citi Field
SF vs NYM Picks
MLB Picks
Earned Runs Allowed


JD Yonke
Betting Analyst
Although the San Francisco Giants aren’t known for their offensive prowess, they hit right-handed pitching much better than they do left-handed pitching. Since the All-Star Break, they rank eighth in wRC+ (116) against RHP, which stands as a stark contrast to their mark against LHP (79 wRC+). Frankie Montas enters Sunday with a point to prove, having allowed four earned runs or more in three of his last five outings. I’ll need to see it before I believe it. His 5.46 ERA isn’t great, and his 5.02 xERA indicates that it’s not a fluke.
Total RBIs

Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Rafael Devers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 3rd-hottest temperature of the day at 84°.. Hitting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's game.. Rafael Devers has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs

Willy Adames o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
As it relates to his home run talent, Willy Adames ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willy Adames is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 3rd-hottest temperature of the day at 84°.. Willy Adames pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.8% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team in action today.
Total RBIs

Matt Chapman o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Chapman as MLB's 17th-best home run hitter.. Matt Chapman is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°.. Matt Chapman hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team in action today.
Total RBIs

Francisco Lindor o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Lindor in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Francisco Lindor is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 3rd-hottest temperature of the day at 84°.. The switch-hitting Francisco Lindor will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his better side (0) today against Carson Whisenhunt.. Francisco Lindor pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36% — 92nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.
Total RBIs

Pete Alonso o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Pete Alonso projects as the 13th-best home run hitter in the majors, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF fences in MLB.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°.. Hitting from the opposite that Carson Whisenhunt throws from, Pete Alonso will have an advantage today.
Total RBIs

Heliot Ramos o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 90th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°.. Heliot Ramos hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. The New York Mets infield defense profiles as the 2nd-weakest among every team in action today.
Total RBIs

Francisco Alvarez o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Francisco Alvarez in the 88th percentile when it comes to his home run ability.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF fences in MLB.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 83°.. Batting from the opposite that Carson Whisenhunt throws from, Francisco Alvarez will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Francisco Alvarez will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Cedric Mullins o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Citi Field has the shallowest CF fences in MLB.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 3rd-hottest temperature of the day at 84°.. Cedric Mullins will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.. Compared to his seasonal average of 24.1°, Cedric Mullins has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 30.4° figure in the last two weeks.. Cedric Mullins's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls this year (16.2°) is a significant increase over his 12.5° figure last year.
Total RBIs

Juan Soto o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Juan Soto projects as the 4th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Citi Field has the shallowest CF fences in MLB.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 3rd-hottest temperature of the day at 84°.. Juan Soto will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.
Total Bases

Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive ability, Rafael Devers ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the 3rd-hottest temperature of the day at 84°.. Hitting from the opposite that Frankie Montas throws from, Rafael Devers will have the upper hand in today's game.. Rafael Devers has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.