Milwaukee @ Washington Picks & Props

Nationals Park ranks as the #27 park in the majors for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Sal Frelick in today's matchup. Sal Frelick's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has fallen off in recent games, decreasing from 40.1% on the season to 30.8% over the past 7 days. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.260) implies that Sal Frelick has had positive variance on his side this year with his .292 actual batting average.

As it relates to his BABIP ability, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). James Wood is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Brandon Woodruff throws from, James Wood will have an edge in today's matchup. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the 5th-worst stadium in the league for right-handed base hits. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Batting from the same side that Jake Irvin throws from, Andrew Vaughn will be in a tough position in today's matchup. Andrew Vaughn will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Sporting a 3.54 K/BB rate this year, Andrew Vaughn has shown weak plate discipline, grading out in the 24th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Nationals Park as the 5th-worst stadium in the league for right-handed base hits. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Batting from the same side that Jake Irvin throws from, William Contreras has a tough challenge in today's game. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for William Contreras today. William Contreras has struggled with his Barrel%; his 10% rate last season has dropped off to 4.9% this year.

Nationals Park ranks as the #27 park in the majors for lefty BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Christian Yelich today. There has been a significant decline in Christian Yelich's launch angle from last year's 5.1° to 1° this season. Compared to his seasonal mark of 1°, Christian Yelich has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-3.2°) in the past two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average ability. The 8th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Nationals Park. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Daylen Lile will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Woodruff today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Daylen Lile will hold that advantage in today's game.

Nathaniel Lowe's BABIP talent is projected in the 77th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nathaniel Lowe is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Brandon Woodruff throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have the upper hand today. Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.2%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 81st percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. CJ Abrams is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). CJ Abrams will hold the platoon advantage over Brandon Woodruff in today's matchup. CJ Abrams pulls many of his flyballs (33.9% — 82nd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Josh Bell ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Josh Bell is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The switch-hitting Josh Bell will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Brandon Woodruff. Josh Bell has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences today.

The 8th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Nationals Park. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today. Over the last two weeks, Blake Perkins has been successful in optimizing the launch angle of his hardest hit balls to hit for power, notching a 23.3° angle. Blake Perkins has recorded a .320 BABIP since the start of last season, checking in at the 85th percentile.

Brady House's BABIP skill is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brady House has a 76th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics across the board, and Brady House will hold that advantage in today's game. Brady House has posted a .267 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Jacob Young's BABIP skill is projected in the 84th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jacob Young has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43%) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Jacob Young are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Woodruff. Jacob Young will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Caleb Durbin is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 97% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Caleb Durbin pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.8% — 81st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today. Caleb Durbin has displayed impressive plate discipline this year, placing in the 94th percentile with a 1.29 K/BB rate.

Isaac Collins is penciled in 5th in the batting order today. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Isaac Collins pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.3% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today. Isaac Collins has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.6-mph to 90.2-mph in the past 14 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brice Turang in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Brice Turang will hold the platoon advantage over Jake Irvin today. Brice Turang has a 100th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.9%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today.

The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Riley Adams has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Riley Adams will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Riley Adams's true offensive ability to be a .287, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .049 gap between that figure and his actual .238 wOBA. Since the start of last season, the hardest ball Riley Adams has hit reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.4 mph (an advanced standard to study power), grading out in the 94th percentile.

The 8th-shallowest RF dimensions among all major league parks are found in Nationals Park. The weather report expects temperatures in this matchup to reach the 4th-highest level on the slate at 82°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Anthony Seigler will have the handedness advantage over Jake Irvin in today's game. The Washington Nationals outfield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams today.

Luis Garcia has not yet played a game this season.