St. Louis @ San Diego Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP skill. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Jordan Walker has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.1-mph to 95-mph in the past 7 days. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Jordan Walker's true offensive ability to be a .307, providing some evidence that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .034 disparity between that figure and his actual .273 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 9th-worst stadium in the league for right-handed base hits. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The weather report calls for the 3rd-best pitching conditions on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Manny Machado has been lucky this year, notching a .372 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .351 — a .021 disparity.

The #9 ballpark in the league for suppressing base hits to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Petco Park. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The weather report calls for the 3rd-best pitching conditions on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Hitting from the same side that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Luis Arraez will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off this season; his 87.9-mph mark last season has fallen to 85.7-mph.

Petco Park has the 3rd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Yohel Pozo has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.4-mph to 90.4-mph in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Petco Park as the 9th-worst stadium in the league for right-handed base hits. Built just 14 feet above sea level, Petco Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to lower offensive output. The weather report calls for the 3rd-best pitching conditions on the slate, as it relates to temperature and humidity. Over the past 7 days, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s 5.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 14.7%. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last season to this one, falling from 48.8% to 41.4%.

Batting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Nolan Gorman will have an edge in today's matchup.

Petco Park has the 3rd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Despite posting a .286 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Nolan Arenado has experienced some negative variance given the .018 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .304. Nolan Arenado has displayed impressive plate discipline this year, grading out in the 86th percentile with a 1.5 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 81st percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Masyn Winn is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Petco Park has the 3rd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Masyn Winn's launch angle this year (16.4°) is significantly higher than his 13° mark last year.

Pedro Pages's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved recently, increasing from 14.6% on the season to 25% in the past two weeks' worth of games. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pedro Pages's true offensive talent to be a .278, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .034 difference between that figure and his actual .244 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 1st in the lineup today. Petco Park has the 3rd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Brendan Donovan will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Nick Pivetta today. Brendan Donovan's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 45.8% to 53.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this game. Jackson Merrill will probably have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the St. Louis Cardinals has just 1 same-handed RP. Jackson Merrill hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ivan Herrera in the 88th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. Ivan Herrera is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Posting a .372 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Ivan Herrera grades out in the 92nd percentile. Sporting a .295 batting average this year, Ivan Herrera grades out in the 94th percentile.

Petco Park has the 3rd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Victor Scott II will have an advantage in today's matchup.

Elias Diaz will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today's game. Elias Diaz hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today. Elias Diaz will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game. Petco Park has the 3rd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Willson Contreras has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.5-mph mark. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.368) may lead us to conclude that Willson Contreras has been unlucky this year with his .341 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Xander Bogaerts will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today.

As it relates to his overall offensive talent, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 84th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Petco Park has the 3rd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. The St. Louis Cardinals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jake Cronenworth can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today. Jake Cronenworth will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Jose Iglesias will have the upper hand in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Iglesias will hold that advantage in today's game. Jose Iglesias has been unlucky this year, compiling a .259 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .280 — a .021 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 94th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today. Hitting from the opposite that Nick Pivetta throws from, Alec Burleson will have an advantage in today's matchup. Alec Burleson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.7% — 96th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 2nd-shallowest CF fences today. Alec Burleson has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 10.2% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ramon Laureano in the 81st percentile when assessing his BABIP ability. Petco Park has the 3rd-shallowest centerfield dimensions among all parks. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Ramon Laureano will have an edge in today's matchup. The St. Louis Cardinals infield defense projects as the 4th-best among all the teams on the slate today. Ramon Laureano will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Thomas Saggese has gone over 0.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.