San Francisco @ New York picks

Giants hitters are batting an impressive .323 with a .445 OBP against David Peterson, and San Francisco is in great hands on the mound with Robbie Ray and his 2.91 ERA taking the hill. In a battle of southpaws, back San Francisco to hand New York its fourth straight loss on Friday night.

Ray has cashed the Under in earned runs allowed in five of his last six appearances. He put together a nice start in his most recent outing vs. these same Mets with two earned runs allowed in 5 2/3 frames and only five hits against. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willy Adames in the 93rd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Willy Adames is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Hitting from the opposite that David Peterson throws from, Willy Adames will have the upper hand today.. Willy Adames pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 80th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball bats like Willy Adames tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like David Peterson.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card today.. Rafael Devers has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.. Rafael Devers has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the past two weeks to his seasonal 93.4-mph EV.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Francisco Lindor ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Francisco Lindor is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. As a switch-hitter who performs better from the 0 side of the dish, Francisco Lindor will have the advantage of batting from from his better side against Robbie Ray in today's game.. Francisco Lindor pulls a lot of his flyballs (36.1% — 93rd percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Francisco Lindor will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best hitter in baseball.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Citi Field has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. Juan Soto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Despite posting a .371 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Juan Soto has experienced some negative variance given the .036 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .407.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Heliot Ramos ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Heliot Ramos is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Heliot Ramos will have the handedness advantage against David Peterson today.. Heliot Ramos hits many of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Among every team playing today, the 2nd-worst infield defense is that of the New York Mets.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as baseball's 14th-best home run hitter.. Pete Alonso is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today.. Citi Field has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. Pete Alonso will hold the platoon advantage over Robbie Ray today.. Pete Alonso will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The San Francisco Giants have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in Major League Baseball this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games. It is expected that we will see a Huge Hitters Umpire (Nic Lentz) behind the plate in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Citi Field as the 3rd-best stadium in Major League Baseball for walks.. Citi Field has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. With 7 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected lineup, David Peterson will be in a tough position while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.

Citi Field grades out as the #28 stadium in Major League Baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 13 feet above sea level, Citi Field has one of the lowest altitudes in the league, which tends to lead to less offense.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 13.8-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hurlers.. Over the last 7 days, Pete Alonso's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 18.1%.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best hitter in baseball.. Juan Soto is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Citi Field has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. Juan Soto will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Despite posting a .371 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Juan Soto has experienced some negative variance given the .036 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .407.

When it comes to his home run talent, Francisco Alvarez ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Citi Field has the 2nd-shallowest centerfield fences in Major League Baseball.. Francisco Alvarez will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Robbie Ray in today's matchup.. Francisco Alvarez will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Francisco Alvarez has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.4-mph average to last season's 88.7-mph average.