Boston @ Minnesota picks

The Red Sox feature one of the league’s best offenses. They sit tied for fourth in runs per game and have scored at least four in five of their last six, over which time they’ve piled up 31 runs in aggregate. The offense should continue to be there against Zebby Matthews. He has allowed 4.96 runs per nine innings over his last six starts. That’s an alarming number considering only one of them came against a Top-11 offense by wRC+, and only two came against teams that cracked the Top 20.

Matt Wallner projects as the 8th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #5 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Matt Wallner will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split.. Extreme groundball batters like Matt Wallner tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Matt Wallner will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Kody Clemens has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (73% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The #5 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense.. Because of Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Kody Clemens will have a gigantic advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in this game.. Kody Clemens will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Abraham Toro is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 62% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. The #5 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to more offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Wilyer Abreu in the 96th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. The #5 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Hitting from the opposite that Zebby Matthews throws from, Wilyer Abreu will have an advantage today.. Wilyer Abreu's launch angle this year (24.1°) is significantly higher than his 19° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jarren Duran in the 97th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Jarren Duran is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #5 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Jarren Duran will have the handedness advantage over Zebby Matthews in today's game.. Jarren Duran has made substantial gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 10.5% seasonal rate to 25% in the last 14 days.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. The #5 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Ryan Jeffers will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Ryan Jeffers has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his home runs this year; his 13.2 HR per 600 plate appearances figure is a good deal lower than his 19.1 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Romy Gonzalez's BABIP talent is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #5 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Romy Gonzalez has made notable gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.5% rate last year to 16.7% this year.. Romy Gonzalez has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last season's 92.3-mph EV.. Last season, Romy Gonzalez had an average launch angle of 5.8° on his highest exit velocity balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 9.9°.

The #5 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Connor Wong has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .189 figure is quite a bit lower than his .252 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. Sporting a .317 BABIP since the start of last season, Connor Wong has performed in the 81st percentile.

Matt Wallner projects as the 8th-best home run batter in Major League Baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The #5 ballpark in baseball for boosting offensive stats, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Matt Wallner will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello today... and even better, Bello has a large platoon split.. Extreme groundball batters like Matt Wallner tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Matt Wallner will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Target Field as the 4th-best field in the league for BABIP.. The Minnesota Twins have 6 batters in the projected offense that will hold the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in this matchup, which is especially precarious given his large platoon split.. Brayan Bello will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game.. Brayan Bello's fastball velocity has fallen 1.2 mph this season (94.5 mph) below where it was last season (95.7 mph).. Among all SPs, Brayan Bello's fastball spin rate of 2185 rpm grades out in the 23rd percentile this year.