Washington @ Houston picks

Houston is now 61-47 on the season and 34-24 at home. Eight different Astros players recorded a hit on Wednesday night, which should be a sign of things to come. MacKenzie Gore is the best the Nationals can throw at the Astros, but in his two starts since the All-Star break, he allowed eight runs on eight hits in 2 1/3 innings, then danced around six walks in five innings against the Twins.

Nationals 1B/DH Josh Bell has smacked 13 long balls this year, and nine have come on the road. He’s also terrorized right-handed hurlers, going deep 12 times. Meanwhile, Astros SP Gusto has surrendered 10 home runs to left-handed hitters. 

When it comes to his home run skill, Christian Walker ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Christian Walker is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Batting from the opposite that MacKenzie Gore throws from, Christian Walker will have an edge today.. Christian Walker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter stats across the board, and Christian Walker will hold that advantage today.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. James Wood will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Gusto today.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the worst among all the teams playing today.

Paul DeJong pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams playing today.. Paul DeJong's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 39.8% to 48.1%.. Paul DeJong has hit 25.1 homers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, grading out in the 82nd percentile for power.

Victor Caratini is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Victor Caratini will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Last year, Victor Caratini had an average launch angle of 7.5° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 13.8°.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. James Wood will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ryan Gusto today.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (38.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the worst among all the teams playing today.

Riley Adams, the Nationals's expected catcher today, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The shallowest left field dimensions in Major League Baseball are found in Minute Maid Park.. MacKenzie Gore will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.. MacKenzie Gore's 94.7-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a sizeable 1.2-mph fall off from last season's 95.9-mph mark.. The Houston Astros have done a strong job as a team optimizing their launch angles on their hardest-hit balls. Their 15° mark is among the highest in the league this year (#7 overall).

Paul DeJong pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the 4th-worst among all the teams playing today.. Paul DeJong's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 39.8% to 48.1%.. Paul DeJong has hit 25.1 homers per 600 plate appearances since the start of last season, grading out in the 82nd percentile for power.

The Houston Astros infield defense profiles as the worst among all the teams playing today.. In the past 7 days, Riley Adams's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 12.5%.. Checking in at the 94th percentile, the hardest ball Riley Adams has hit since the start of last season reached a maximum exit velocity of 115.4 mph -- a reliable indication of underlying power ability.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Minute Maid Park as the 5th-worst stadium in Major League Baseball for run-scoring.. In Major League Baseball, the 3rd-tallest fence height (on average) are at Minute Maid Park.. Built just 20 feet above sea level, Minute Maid Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league stadiums, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to less offense.. The Minute Maid Park roof projects to be closed today, making conditions in this game -10° colder than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate today — favorable for pitching.. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for James Wood today.

Zack Short will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics across the board, and Zack Short will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Over the past two weeks, Zack Short has posted a 22.6° launch angle, lifting the ball well and indicating strong home run potential.