Tampa Bay @ New York Picks & Props

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jazz Chisholm Jr. in the 93rd percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a lot of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Anthony Volpe will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats. Anthony Volpe has made substantial gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 9.9% seasonal rate to 21.7% over the past 14 days. In the last two weeks, Anthony Volpe has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls: 28.6° compared to his seasonal mark of 12.9°.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Austin Wells will have an edge today. Extreme groundball bats like Austin Wells are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Drew Rasmussen. Austin Wells will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats. There has been a significant improvement in Austin Wells's launch angle from last year's 16.9° to 20.6° this season.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. There has been a significant improvement in Danny Jansen's launch angle from last season's 21.6° to 24.8° this year. Danny Jansen's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls lately (27° in the past two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 18° seasonal mark.

Yankee Stadium ranks as the #27 field in the majors for LHB BABIP, per the leading projection system (THE BAT). Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Chandler Simpson hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.5% — 99th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 6th-deepest CF fences today. Chandler Simpson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Chandler Simpson's 0% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) is in the 0th percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Junior Caminero in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Junior Caminero is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Junior Caminero has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 95.8-mph over the last 14 days. Junior Caminero's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, going from 31.5% to 38.2%.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Batting from the opposite that Cam Schlitter throws from, Tristan Gray will have the upper hand in today's game. Tristan Gray's 93-mph average exit velocity is among the best in the majors since the start of last season: 96th percentile.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Jose Caballero has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 85.8-mph average to last season's 83.5-mph EV. Compared to his seasonal average of 18.6°, Jose Caballero has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 24.8° figure in the last 14 days. Compared to last year, Jose Caballero has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 43.9% to 51.7% this season. Checking in at the 85th percentile, Jose Caballero has notched a .332 BABIP this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Yankee Stadium as the worst venue in MLB for RHB BABIP. Built just 11 feet above sea level, Yankee Stadium has one of the lowest elevations in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense. Batting from the same side that Cam Schlitter throws from, Yandy Diaz will not have the upper hand in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Yandy Diaz in today's game. Yandy Diaz's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined in recent games, decreasing from 47.1% on the season to 20% over the past week.

Cody Bellinger's batting average skill is projected to be in the 88th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Cody Bellinger is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an advantage in today's matchup. Cody Bellinger pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.4% — 84th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Jonathan Aranda will hold the platoon advantage over Cam Schlitter in today's matchup. Jonathan Aranda pulls many of his flyballs (33.2% — 76th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Compared to last season, Taylor Walls has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15.8% to 19.4% this season. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.238) implies that Taylor Walls has had bad variance on his side this year with his .218 actual batting average.

When assessing his overall offensive ability, Giancarlo Stanton ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Giancarlo Stanton is penciled in 4th on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Giancarlo Stanton will hold that advantage today. Giancarlo Stanton has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 96.8-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 93.2-mph figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Mangum in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Jake Mangum has posted a .292 batting average this year, grading out in the 92nd percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Paul Goldschmidt in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Paul Goldschmidt will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to bolster all of his stats. Paul Goldschmidt's launch angle lately (26.9° over the last 14 days) is quite a bit better than his 16° seasonal figure. Posting a .339 BABIP this year, Paul Goldschmidt finds himself in the 93rd percentile.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ben Rice ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Batting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Ben Rice will have an edge today. Ben Rice pulls many of his flyballs (35.3% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Ben Rice will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Hitting from the opposite that Drew Rasmussen throws from, Ryan McMahon will have an edge in today's game. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Ryan McMahon will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Ryan McMahon has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, upping his 13.2% seasonal rate to 26.7% in the past 14 days. Ryan McMahon has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 93.6-mph to 100.6-mph in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jasson Dominguez in the 91st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Jasson Dominguez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 68% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. The switch-hitting Jasson Dominguez will get to bat from his good side (0) today against Drew Rasmussen. Jasson Dominguez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Matt Thaiss will have the handedness advantage over Cam Schlitter in today's game. As it relates to plate discipline, Matt Thaiss's ability is quite impressive, posting a 1.58 K/BB rate this year while grading out in in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trent Grisham in the 91st percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill. Trent Grisham is penciled in 1st in the batting order today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast calls for the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 91°. Trent Grisham will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Drew Rasmussen today. Trent Grisham pulls many of his flyballs (34.5% — 86th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 7th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Josh Lowe has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.