San Diego @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Stephen Kolek will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ivan Herrera today. In today's matchup, Ivan Herrera is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.3% rate (81st percentile). Typically, hitters like Ivan Herrera who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Stephen Kolek. Ivan Herrera's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, decreasing from 16.3% to 9.8%. Ivan Herrera's footspeed has declined this year. His 27.25 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.52 ft/sec now.

Hitting from the same side that Michael McGreevy throws from, Manny Machado will have a disadvantage today. Playing on the road generally lowers batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Manny Machado in today's matchup. Manny Machado has been lucky this year, posting a .360 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .350 — a .010 disparity.

Despite posting a .341 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alec Burleson has had some very good luck given the .006 discrepancy between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335. Alec Burleson is not very fast, ranking in the 9th percentile in Sprint Speed at 25.31 ft/sec this year.

Jackson Merrill will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player today.

Today, Brendan Donovan is at a disadvantage facing the league's 8th-deepest LF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 35.1% rate (86th percentile). Brendan Donovan's quickness has fallen off this year. His 27 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 26.55 ft/sec now. Despite posting a .343 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Brendan Donovan has been very fortunate given the .007 discrepancy between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .336.

Luis Arraez has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.7%) and will have to hit them out towards the game's 8th-deepest LF fences today. Luis Arraez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road today. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this year; his 87.9-mph figure last year has fallen to 85.7-mph. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Luis Arraez's true offensive skill to be a .309, indicating that he has had some very good luck this year given the .004 disparity between that figure and his actual .313 wOBA. Luis Arraez's 0.8% Barrel% (an advanced stat to assess power) is in the 2nd percentile this year.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Elias Diaz hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.4% — 77th percentile) and is fortunate to face baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Elias Diaz has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91.1-mph average to last year's 88.3-mph average. Elias Diaz's launch angle this year (18.1°) is considerably better than his 7.3° mark last season. Elias Diaz has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last season's 24.41 ft/sec to 24.9 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Cronenworth in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Jake Cronenworth will hold the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy today. Jake Cronenworth has shown favorable plate discipline this year, placing in the 82nd percentile with a 1.68 K/BB rate.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Gavin Sheets will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Michael McGreevy today. This season, Gavin Sheets has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 94.8 mph compared to last year's 90.8 mph mark.

Batting from the same side that Michael McGreevy throws from, Fernando Tatis Jr. will be in a tough position in today's matchup. Fernando Tatis Jr. will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased from last year to this one, decreasing from 48.8% to 40.5%. Fernando Tatis Jr. has been unlucky this year, compiling a .352 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .376 — a .024 gap.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Hitting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Victor Scott II will have the upper hand today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics across the board, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today's game. Ranking in the 99th percentile for Sprint Speed at 30.18 ft/sec this year, Victor Scott II is quite quick.

Xander Bogaerts's batting average skill is projected to be in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Xander Bogaerts is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Xander Bogaerts hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 83rd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Xander Bogaerts has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91.6-mph average to last year's 89.6-mph figure.

In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Pedro Pages will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 79th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Masyn Winn will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Masyn Winn's launch angle this season (16.3°) is quite a bit better than his 13° mark last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Iglesias in the 88th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions on the schedule today.

Nolan Arenado is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. When it comes to plate discipline, Nolan Arenado's talent is quite impressive, posting a 1.44 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 89th percentile.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Willson Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage in today's game. Willson Contreras's 15.4% Barrel% (an advanced stat to evaluate power) ranks in the 92nd percentile this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Walker in the 81st percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather report forecasts for the 5th-most suitable hitting conditions on the schedule today. Jordan Walker hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.6% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage today. Grading out in the 96th percentile, the hardest ball Jordan Walker has connected with this year reached a maximum exit velocity of 116.5 mph -- an advanced indication of underlying power skill.

Bryce Johnson has gone over 0.5 in 4 of his last 10 games.