Philadelphia @ New York picks

Zack Wheeler has been tagged for a .968 OPS by Yankees hitters, and New York southpaw Carlos Rodon should thrive against a Phillies lineup that struggles both on the road and against left-handed pitching. Back the Bronx Bombers as slight home dogs.

Carlos Rodon’s been lights-out at home, posting a 1.19 ERA over his last 35 innings and holding hitters to a .156 average across 60 2/3 frames. He’s also owned the Phillies, limiting them to a .697 OPS with just two extra-base hits and two homers in 72 career at-bats. The Phillies, meanwhile, struggle on the road with a weak .696 OPS, setting up Rodon for a strong outing. 

The #9 venue in MLB for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Yankee Stadium.. This game is projected to have the highest humidity of the day (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. With 7 batters of opposing handedness in the opposing team's projected lineup, Zack Wheeler will be at a disadvantage while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in this outing.. Playing on the road typically weakens pitcher stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Zack Wheeler in today's matchup.. Zack Wheeler's high utilization rate of his fastball (59.4% this year) is likely dampening his results, since they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.

Giancarlo Stanton projects as the 5th-best home run batter in the league, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Giancarlo Stanton is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. This game is projected to have the highest humidity of the day (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Out of every team playing today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

When it comes to his home run talent, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have an edge in today's matchup.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls many of his flyballs (35% — 89th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 7th-shallowest RF fences today.

Nick Castellanos's batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nick Castellanos is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. This game is projected to have the highest humidity of the day (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Nick Castellanos will hold the platoon advantage against Carlos Rodon in today's matchup.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Ben Rice ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. This game is projected to have the highest humidity of the day (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Ben Rice will hold the platoon advantage over Zack Wheeler today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cody Bellinger in the 87th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability.. Cody Bellinger is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. This game is projected to have the highest humidity of the day (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Cody Bellinger will have an edge in today's matchup.

On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. This game is projected to have the highest humidity of the day (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Hitting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Austin Wells will have the upper hand in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Austin Wells will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his home run skill, Ryan McMahon ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. This game is projected to have the highest humidity of the day (80%); there is a small but significant link with increased offense (and decreased Ks) when the weather is humid.. Batting from the opposite that Zack Wheeler throws from, Ryan McMahon will have an edge in today's game.. Out of every team playing today, the worst infield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

Bryce Harper projects as the 13th-best hitter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bryce Harper is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. On average, the fence height at Yankee Stadium is the 7th-lowest among all major league baseball stadiums.. Bryce Harper's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better from last season to this one, going from 44.7% to 50%.. Using Statcast metrics, Bryce Harper grades out in the 98th percentile for hitting ability according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .385.

Yankee Stadium ranks as the #27 park in the majors for RHB BABIP, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. In MLB, Yankee Stadium's centerfield dimensions are the 6th-deepest.. Trea Turner will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.. Despite posting a .343 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Trea Turner has experienced some negative variance given the .000 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .343.. Trea Turner has done a weak job optimizing his launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls. His 7.2° figure is among the lowest in MLB this year (15th percentile).