Atlanta @ Texas picks

The Rangers are getting productivity at the plate, with 20 of their 41 hits since the All-Star break going to extra bases including eight home runs. And they’re facing an Atlanta team that has been abysmal on the road, is reeling from the losses in their pitching staff, and has a bullpen that continues to surrender leads. Grant Holmes hasn’t had a bad season, but he’s below the league average in nearly every advanced metric outside strikeouts and whiff rate. More importantly, he’s getting little run support with the Braves scoring two or fewer runs in four of his last five starts. Kumar Rocker’s ERA of 5.66 might scare you away from Texas here. But there’s a massive split between his home ERA — 1.84 in five starts — compared to what he’s done on the road — 9.91 in six starts — that must be taken into consideration. Opponents are also hitting just .187 against him at Globe Life Field.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Sean Murphy has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 9.6% rate last year to 14.6% this year.. With a .358 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Sean Murphy finds himself in the 84th percentile.. Sean Murphy has hit 42.6 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 98th percentile for power.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. In notching a .343 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) using Statcast data) this year, Marcell Ozuna finds himself in the 79th percentile for offensive ability.. Posting a 1.37 K/BB rate this year, Marcell Ozuna has displayed favorable plate discipline, grading out in the 91st percentile.

When estimating his home run skill, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Adolis Garcia is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Adolis Garcia will hold that advantage in today's game.. Adolis Garcia's launch angle this year (18.3°) is considerably better than his 14.8° angle last year.

Globe Life Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Last year, Ozzie Albies had an average launch angle of 14.2° on his hardest-hit balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 17.2°.. Despite posting a .278 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Ozzie Albies has had bad variance on his side given the .039 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .317.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Drake Baldwin ranks in the 76th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Drake Baldwin is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Hitting from the opposite that Kumar Rocker throws from, Drake Baldwin will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Drake Baldwin's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls in recent games (25.1° over the last two weeks) is a considerable increase over his 11° seasonal angle.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 90th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Batting from the opposite that Kumar Rocker throws from, Michael Harris II will have an edge today.. Michael Harris II has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.3-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89-mph average.. Over the past 7 days, Michael Harris II's 57.9% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 40.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Globe Life Field as the worst field in the game for run-scoring.. Among all stadiums, Globe Life Field's centerfield dimensions are the 7th-deepest.. The Globe Life Field roof is expected to be closed today, making conditions in this contest -12° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.. Grant Holmes will have the handedness advantage over Adolis Garcia in today's game.. Adolis Garcia's average exit velocity has dropped off recently; his 92.4-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 88.1-mph in the last week.

The Texas Rangers have been the 5th-unluckiest offense in the league this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to positively regress in future games. Globe Life Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Playing on the road typically diminishes pitcher metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Grant Holmes in today's matchup.. Grant Holmes's 4th percentile BB% (11.2% this year) displays his weak control ability.. Placing 2nd-steepest in Major League Baseball this year, Texas Rangers bats as a unit have notched a 15.8° launch angle (a reliable standard to measure the ability to lift the ball for power).

Globe Life Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Jonah Heim will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Jonah Heim's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, increasing from 11.1% to 15.2%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Matt Olson is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-shortest average fence height in Major League Baseball.. Hitting from the opposite that Kumar Rocker throws from, Matt Olson will have an advantage today.. Matt Olson has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last year's 91.3-mph mark.