San Diego @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Jose Iglesias is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game. Today, Jose Iglesias is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.3% rate (81st percentile). Playing on the road generally lessens batter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Jose Iglesias in today's game. Jose Iglesias's average exit velocity has fallen off this year; his 85.8-mph mark last year has dropped to 83.6-mph. Jose Iglesias's launch angle this year (0.7°) is considerably lower than his 8.8° mark last year.

The San Diego Padres outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams in action today. Despite posting a .341 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Alec Burleson has had some very good luck given the .006 gap between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .335.

Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Fernando Tatis Jr. in today's game. Fernando Tatis Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has declined from last year to this one, falling from 48.8% to 40.5%. Despite posting a .352 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Fernando Tatis Jr. has suffered from bad luck given the .024 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .376.

Batting from the same side that Randy Vasquez throws from, Ivan Herrera encounters a tough challenge today. Today, Ivan Herrera is at a disadvantage facing the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences given that he hits his flyballs to the opposite field at a 34.2% rate (80th percentile). The San Diego Padres outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams in action today. In the last 14 days, Ivan Herrera's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 10.1% down to 0%. Compared to his seasonal angle of 8.8°, Ivan Herrera has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-3.4°) over the last 14 days.

Brendan Donovan has an 87th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.2%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 8th-deepest LF fences today. The San Diego Padres outfield defense projects as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams in action today. In the last week's worth of games, Brendan Donovan's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.6% down to 0%. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Brendan Donovan's true offensive ability to be a .336, suggesting that he has experienced some positive variance this year given the .007 difference between that mark and his actual .343 wOBA.

When it comes to his overall offensive skill, Jake Cronenworth ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jake Cronenworth has shown strong plate discipline this year, ranking in the 82nd percentile with a 1.68 K/BB rate.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Gavin Sheets has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 94.8-mph average to last season's 90.8-mph mark.

Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Xander Bogaerts in today's game. Despite posting a .318 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Xander Bogaerts has had bad variance on his side given the .014 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .332.

Manny Machado will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Manny Machado's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has dropped off lately, decreasing from 47.4% on the season to 34.6% over the last two weeks. Despite posting a .360 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Manny Machado has been very fortunate given the .010 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .350.

Matthew Liberatore will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Arraez today. Luis Arraez has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them towards the league's 8th-deepest LF fences today. Playing on the road typically lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Luis Arraez today. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased this season; his 87.9-mph EV last season has decreased to 85.7-mph. Luis Arraez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined in recent games; his 85.7-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 82.4-mph in the last 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Merrill in the 96th percentile as it relates to his batting average ability. Jackson Merrill is projected to hit 4th in the batting order today. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jackson Merrill hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Jackson Merrill has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 12.9% seasonal rate to 26.1% in the last 14 days.

Jordan Walker's BABIP talent is projected in the 81st percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Jordan Walker hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (40.7% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Jordan Walker will hold that advantage today. Jordan Walker's maximum exit velocity (a reliable standard to evaluate power) has been 116.5 mph this year, placing in the 96th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 78th percentile when it comes to his batting average ability. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Masyn Winn will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Willson Contreras will hold that advantage today. Willson Contreras has made big strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 15.2% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past 7 days.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Randy Vasquez throws from, Victor Scott II will have an advantage in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage in today's game. Victor Scott II's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better lately, increasing from 17.2% on the season to 31.3% over the last week.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Bryce Johnson will hold the platoon advantage while batting from from his good side against Matthew Liberatore in today's game. Bryce Johnson's footspeed has increased this season. His 28.13 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last season sits at 28.62 ft/sec now. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Bryce Johnson has experienced some negative variance since the start of last season. His .263 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .295.

Nolan Arenado is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Compared to his seasonal average of 19.1°, Nolan Arenado has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 23.5° figure in the last two weeks. Posting a 1.44 K/BB rate this year, Nolan Arenado has shown strong plate discipline, checking in at the 89th percentile.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Over the last 14 days, Pedro Pages's 68.8% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 38.4%.

The weather forecast projects temperatures in this contest to reach the highest level of all games on the slate at 89°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Martin Maldonado will have an advantage today. Martin Maldonado's 17.3° launch angle (a reliable stat to measure a batter's ability to lift the ball for power) is one of the steepest in the league: 81st percentile.