Atlanta @ Texas picks

Globe Life Field is where offense goes to die. The Texas Rangers have cashed the Under in 35 of their last 51 home games, and that’s a trend worth following. Nathan Eovaldi (1.58 ERA) gets the call on Friday. The veteran has been superb in all areas, limiting free passes (4.0% walk rate), garnering strikeouts (27% K rate), and inducing grounders (88th percentile groundball rate). His pitching counterpart will be Joey Wentz, who has bounced around three teams this season and has settled into Atlanta’s rotation for now. Texas has struggled against lefties all year, and recent form is no different (74 wRC+ and 28.9% K rate in July). The Rangers are just 8-17 against left-handed starters this year. Plus both bullpens will be refreshed after an off day on Thursday.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Nathan Eovaldi is projected to throw 85 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least on the slate.. Nathan Eovaldi's 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 2-mph decrease from last season's 95.4-mph figure.

Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 5th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height among all major league parks.. The Barrel% of Ronald Acuna Jr. has significantly improved, with an increase from 9.5% last year to 19.2% this season.. Ronald Acuna Jr. has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 19.2% seasonal rate to 26.3% over the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 96th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Matt Olson is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Nathan Eovaldi throws from, Matt Olson will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Matt Olson has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 93.6-mph average to last season's 91.3-mph figure.

When assessing his home run talent, Adolis Garcia ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Adolis Garcia is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height among all major league parks.. Batting from the opposite that Joey Wentz throws from, Adolis Garcia will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Adolis Garcia will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Corey Seager ranks as the 7th-best hitter in the majors.. Corey Seager is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height among all major league parks.. Corey Seager will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to boost all of his stats.. Over the past week, Corey Seager's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.7% up to 22.2%.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Nathan Eovaldi is projected to throw 85 pitches in this matchup by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 14th-least on the slate.. The 4th-worst projected offense on the slate in terms of overall hitting ability belongs to the Atlanta Braves.. The Atlanta Braves have been the 3rd-unluckiest offense in the game this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height among all major league parks.. Nathan Eovaldi's 93.4-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a substantial 2-mph decrease from last season's 95.4-mph figure.

Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height among all major league parks.. Michael Helman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Joey Wentz in today's game.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics in all categories, and Michael Helman will hold that advantage in today's game.. Michael Helman is remarkably quick, ranking in the 82nd percentile in Sprint Speed at 28.55 ft/sec since the start of last season.

When it comes to his home run skill, Sean Murphy ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height among all major league parks.. The Barrel% of Sean Murphy has significantly improved, with an increase from 9.6% last year to 14.6% this year.. Checking in at the 84th percentile, Sean Murphy has notched a .358 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.. In terms of power, Sean Murphy is positioned in the 98th percentile, having averaged 42.6 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year.

Ronald Acuna Jr. projects as the 5th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ronald Acuna Jr. is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height among all major league parks.. The Barrel% of Ronald Acuna Jr. has significantly improved, with an increase from 9.5% last year to 19.2% this season.. Ronald Acuna Jr. has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 19.2% seasonal rate to 26.3% over the last two weeks.

Globe Life Field has the 6th-lowest average fence height among all major league parks.. Extreme groundball bats like Ozzie Albies are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Nathan Eovaldi.. Last year, Ozzie Albies had an average launch angle of 14.2° on his hardest-contacted balls, while this season it has significantly increased to 17.2°.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Ozzie Albies's true offensive skill to be a .317, indicating that he has suffered from bad luck this year given the .039 discrepancy between that mark and his actual .278 wOBA.