Kansas City @ Chicago picks

Pete Crow-Armstrong continues to be on an absolute tear, and he has done almost all his damage against right-handed pitching. While he’s only hitting .205 against southpaws, PCA is batting .300 with a .946 OPS against righties (like today's opponent, Seth Lugo) with 40 extra-base hits. 

Colin Rea has been in top form over the last month. In July alone, he owns a 1.45 ERA across three outings, cashing the Under in earned runs allowed in all of them. He’s only surrendered one earned run in that span.

Colin Rea has a projected pitch count of 86 pitches and is averaging 88 pitches per start while going Under on this number in 60% of those starts. 
The Wrigley wind will not help him today as it's blowing 14 mph out to left field, and it’s around 90 degrees with good humidity, making some solid hitting conditions, and the reason the total is in double digits. Rea has pitched well but does not get past 90 pitches often — doing so in just three of his last 10. Another big reason Rea could be done after 15 outs is the Cubs’ bullpen. Chicago needed just 19 pitchers from two relievers yesterday after Matthew Boyd’s gem, and eight arms are available and likely need some work. 

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 18th-best batter in baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. In the league, Wrigley Field's left field fences are the 5th-shallowest.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. In the league, Wrigley Field's left field fences are the 5th-shallowest.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage in today's game.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. The weather report projects the most suitable hitting weather on the schedule today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Ian Happ ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ian Happ is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will get to bat from his better side against Seth Lugo in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 92nd percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Salvador Perez is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 10th-best hitter in baseball.. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest elevation in Major League Baseball, which often leads to higher offensive output.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 86°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.

Carson Kelly has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (50% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. In the league, Wrigley Field's left field fences are the 5th-shallowest.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Jac Caglianone is penciled in 5th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 100% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this season.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Hitting from the opposite that Colin Rea throws from, Jac Caglianone will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Jac Caglianone has seen a notable improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 92.3-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 89.7-mph figure.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Dansby Swanson ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. In the league, Wrigley Field's left field fences are the 5th-shallowest.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage in today's game.

High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather forecast forecasts the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 10.4-mph in this contest, the most-favorable of the day for batters.. Seth Lugo will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game.. Seth Lugo's fastball velocity has fallen 1 mph this season (91.2 mph) below where it was last season (92.2 mph).. Seth Lugo has experienced some positive variance in regards to his ERA this year; his 2.94 mark is quite a bit lower than his 4.48 FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching, an estimator of ERA that focuses on the things a pitcher has the most control over).