San Francisco @ Atlanta picks

Landen Roupp’s 4.26 xFIP and .333 BABIP signal looming regression. The red-hot Braves lineup has scored 31 runs across the last five games. Meanwhile, Atlanta SP Davis Daniel lacks overpowering stuff but has impressed over a handful of innings with a 1.80 ERA, and the Giants’ 22% K rate against righties plays to his strengths.

Pitch count projection sits around 85, but that may be conservative. He threw 100+ pitches in back-to-back starts before the All-Star break, showing he can handle a full workload. He's also striking out more than a batter per inning on the road — a key edge in hitter-friendly conditions where swing-and-miss stuff plays up. Atlanta remains a top-5 team in strikeout rate over the last 30 days, making this a strong matchup. Six innings and 5+ Ks is a realistic baseline, with upside for more if the leash is longer than projected.

Davis Daniel threw just 73 pitches in his MLB starting debut, and with Atlanta’s bullpen fully rested (only one arm used recently), expect a quick hook if he runs into trouble. However, he can be good if does go long. He’s been sharp in Triple-A (55 hits allowed in 72 IP) and has given up just 2 hits over 5 innings in his first two MLB appearances. That said, the Braves seem intent on managing his workload. With hot weather potentially factoring in, the realistic ceiling is around 4–5 innings. There’s value in Unders on outs recorded and on pitcher props tied to deeper innings — even if he pitches well, volume could be capped.

When estimating his home run ability, Matt Olson ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 5th-best park in the majors for lefty BABIP.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 5th-best park in the majors for lefty BABIP.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heliot Ramos in the 90th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Heliot Ramos is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. The #5 field in the league for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 88°.

Ozzie Albies is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 5th-best park in the majors for lefty BABIP.. Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.

Jurickson Profar is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 5th-best park in the majors for lefty BABIP.. Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 88°.

Michael Harris II's batting average talent is projected to be in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 5th-best park in the majors for lefty BABIP.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 8.1-mph in this contest, the 2nd-strongest of the day for hitters.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ronald Acuna Jr. ranks as the 5th-best hitter in baseball.. Ronald Acuna Jr. is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. The #5 field in the league for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 88°.

As it relates to his home run ability, Willy Adames ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Willy Adames is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this game.. The #5 field in the league for boosting base hits to right-handed hitters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.

Mike Yastrzemski is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 5th-best park in the majors for lefty BABIP.. Truist Park has the 5th-shallowest CF dimensions in MLB.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 88°.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Rafael Devers ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Truist Park as the 5th-best park in the majors for lefty BABIP.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest altitude among all parks. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather report projects the highest temperatures on the schedule today at 91°.