San Diego @ Miami picks

I’m going against the projections here as Edward Cabrera has gone Over this number in 10 straight starts and has totaled 60 Ks in just 53 innings. He might not get to 18 outs, but five in five innings is a safe floor. The part that is worrisome is that he experienced elbow discomfort in his last start but has had 11 days to recover and there might not be any restrictions. He had six punchouts in four innings Over 76 pitches in that start while across this 10-game Over streak, he has thrown under 87 or fewer pitches five times. He can pile up Ks even in an abbreviated start. He has also hit this Over vs. many other teams in the Bottom-10 in K%, which the Padres are. 

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Manny Machado ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Manny Machado is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Manny Machado hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 97th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Over the last 14 days, Manny Machado has improved his Barrel% substantially, increasing it from his seasonal rate of 13.7% to 23.1%.. Manny Machado has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.7-mph to 97.4-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Jesus Sanchez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Stephen Kolek in today's matchup.. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the San Diego Padres.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 8th-best batter in the league.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Fernando Tatis Jr. has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.2% seasonal rate to 17.4% in the past two weeks.. In the last two weeks, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.7-mph over the course of the season to 99.6-mph recently.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Xander Bogaerts in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Xander Bogaerts is projected to hit 5th in the lineup today.. Xander Bogaerts hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.9% — 87th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Xander Bogaerts has made substantial strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 5.4% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 7 days.. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.332) implies that Xander Bogaerts has had some very poor luck this year with his .318 actual wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kyle Stowers in the 95th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Kyle Stowers is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Batting from the opposite that Stephen Kolek throws from, Kyle Stowers will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Kyle Stowers has strong power (95th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's never a sure thing (29.1% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Stephen Kolek is a pitch-to-contact type (12th percentile K%) — great news for Stowers.. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the San Diego Padres.

Gavin Sheets is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Gavin Sheets will have the handedness advantage over Edward Cabrera in today's matchup.. Compared to his seasonal angle of 13.9°, Gavin Sheets has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (-35°) in the past 14 days.. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Gavin Sheets has been unlucky this year. His .322 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .344.

LoanDepot Park has the 6th-shallowest centerfield fences in the majors.. This season, Elias Diaz has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 91.1 mph compared to last year's 88.3 mph mark.. Elias Diaz's launch angle this season (18.2°) is a considerable increase over his 7.3° figure last season.. Elias Diaz has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 24.41 ft/sec to 24.9 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

As it relates to his overall offensive skill, Jesus Sanchez ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Jesus Sanchez is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Jesus Sanchez will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Stephen Kolek in today's matchup.. Among every team playing today, the 3rd-worst infield defense is that of the San Diego Padres.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Fernando Tatis Jr. ranks as the 8th-best batter in the league.. Fernando Tatis Jr. is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card today.. Fernando Tatis Jr. hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.1% — 98th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Fernando Tatis Jr. has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 12.2% seasonal rate to 17.4% in the past two weeks.. In the last two weeks, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.7-mph over the course of the season to 99.6-mph recently.

Martin Maldonado's 17.2° launch angle (an advanced metric to evaluate a hitter's ability to lift the ball for power) is among the most flyball-inducing in the game: 80th percentile.