Houston @ Seattle picks

This is a huge series in the scope of the AL West, and we'll back the Seattle Mariners to draw first blood. They'll have the pitching advantage here with Luis Castillo taking on Brandon Walker. They are also playing some good baseball, winners of three straight and six of their last nine. 

Brandon Walter is 0-1 in four road starts with a bloated 5.73 ERA. Opponents are hitting a crisp .289 against him in that split. Look for Seattle to tag Walter and tighten the race for first in the AL West.

The Mariners star had three long balls in his last six games before the break, and has gone deep five times already in the month of July.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 80th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Jorge Polanco pulls a lot of his flyballs (39.7% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball batters like Jorge Polanco generally hit better against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Walter.. Jorge Polanco will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Jorge Polanco has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 90.7-mph average to last year's 88.3-mph mark.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Cal Raleigh will get to bat from his strong side against Brandon Walter in this game.. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball hitters like Cal Raleigh are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Walter.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Randy Arozarena will hold the platoon advantage against Brandon Walter today.. Randy Arozarena pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 77th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.. Randy Arozarena will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

When estimating his batting average ability, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 11th-best batter in MLB by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Julio Rodriguez will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

When estimating his home run talent, Dylan Moore ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Batting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Dylan Moore will have an edge in today's game.. Dylan Moore pulls a lot of his flyballs (38.8% — 97th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Dylan Moore are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Walter.. Dylan Moore will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Cal Raleigh projects as the 3rd-best home run hitter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Cal Raleigh is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the dish, Cal Raleigh will get to bat from his strong side against Brandon Walter in this game.. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43% — 100th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme groundball hitters like Cal Raleigh are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brandon Walter.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles T-Mobile Park as the worst park in MLB for run-scoring.. T-Mobile Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which generally leads to less offense.. This matchup is predicted to have the best conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today.. Considering Luis Castillo's large platoon split, Christian Walker will be at a tremendous disadvantage hitting from the same side of the plate in this game.. Playing on the road generally weakens batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Christian Walker in today's game.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Walter throws from, Mitch Garver will have an edge in today's matchup.. Mitch Garver pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.4% — 99th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 8th-shallowest LF fences today.. Hitters such as Mitch Garver with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Walter who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Mitch Garver will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.. This year, Mitch Garver's flyball exit velocity (an advanced metric to assess power) grades out in the 93rd percentile at 96.5 mph.

Long-balls are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the 3rd-shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Taylor Trammell will have the handedness advantage against Luis Castillo in today's matchup... and even better, Castillo has a large platoon split.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Taylor Trammell stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. Notching a 93.9-mph average exit velocity in the past two weeks' worth of games, Taylor Trammell has been in great form recently.. Taylor Trammell has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for base hits lately, hitting balls between -4° and 26° 56.3% of the time in the past two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cole Young in the 78th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent.. Cole Young pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.9% — 88th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Cole Young will hold that advantage today.. Cole Young has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, upping his 7.8% seasonal rate to 17.6% over the past 14 days.. Over the past two weeks, Cole Young's 64.7% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 43.3%.