Boston @ Chicago picks

Lucas Giolito has been something of a revelation since debuting for the Red Sox, boasting a 3.36 ERA and a 6-1 record through 13 starts. The Cubs offense is fearsome, but Boston is riding a 10-game winning streak and can measure up well against SP Colin Rea, who doesn't miss bats (6.36 K/9) and owns an expected ERA of 4.95.

Tucker immediately became the anchor of the Cubs’ lineup. He went into the break hitting .280 with an .882 OPS, with 17 home runs and 56 RBI. Tucker is also one of the few Cubbies with past experience against Giolito from his time in the American League. He’s 5-for-18 with a double, good for a .309 xBA and a .435 xSLG. The price oddsmakers are giving for him to get an RBI continues to be too high. Particularly against Giolito who ranks in the 20th percentile in xERA and the 10th in xBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage in today's game.. Dansby Swanson has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 97.5-mph in the past 7 days.. There has been a significant improvement in Dansby Swanson's launch angle from last year's 10.2° to 14.1° this year.

Carson Kelly is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter metrics in all categories, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage today.. Carson Kelly has made big improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 6.6% rate last season to 12.4% this year.. Carson Kelly has made notable improvements with his Barrel% lately, improving his 12.4% seasonal rate to 26.1% in the last two weeks.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 18th-best hitter in the majors.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Seiya Suzuki has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 11.5% rate last season to 18.8% this year.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 9th-best hitter in the majors.. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. Kyle Tucker will hold the platoon advantage against Lucas Giolito today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage today.

When estimating his overall offensive skill, Alex Bregman ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Alex Bregman is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. Alex Bregman pulls many of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Alex Bregman has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.1-mph average to last season's 89-mph EV.

Ceddanne Rafaela is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.. Wrigley Field grades out as the #24 park in the majors for run-scoring, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league parks, the 7th-tallest fence height (on average) are at Wrigley Field.. As far as temperature and humidity go, the 5th-best pitching weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.. The wind projects to be blowing in from RF at 8.1-mph in this match-up, the 2nd-best of the day for mound aces.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 18th-best hitter in the majors.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Seiya Suzuki will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Seiya Suzuki has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, improving his 11.5% rate last season to 18.8% this year.

Over the last 14 days, Abraham Toro's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.3-mph over the course of the season to 98.4-mph lately.. There has been a significant improvement in Abraham Toro's launch angle from last year's 12.1° to 15.3° this year.

Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all major league stadiums, which generally leads to better offense.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and Matt Shaw will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Matt Shaw has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .252 figure is a fair amount lower than his .298 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.