Pittsburgh @ Minnesota picks
Target Field
PIT vs MIN Picks
MLB Picks
Strikeouts Thrown

Paul Skenes o6.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+126)
Projection 7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his strikeout skill, Paul Skenes projects as the 8th-best starter in Major League Baseball currently, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Throwing 94.9 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Paul Skenes falls in the 92nd percentile.. It is expected that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Austin Jones) in charge of the strike zone today.. In his previous start, Paul Skenes was on point and compiled 7 strikeouts.. Paul Skenes has utilized his change-up 22% more often this year (27.4%) than he did last season (5.4%).
Total RBIs

Oneil Cruz o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Oneil Cruz as the majors's 6th-best home run batter.. Oneil Cruz is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 6th-best venue in the league for run-scoring.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in MLB, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Because of Joe Ryan's large platoon split, Oneil Cruz will have a big advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today.
Total RBIs

Bryan Reynolds o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Target Field profiles as the #7 stadium in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The switch-hitting Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his strong side (0) today against Joe Ryan... and even better, Ryan has a large platoon split.. Out of all the teams playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.
Total RBIs

Andrew McCutchen o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his overall offensive skill, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The #7 field in MLB for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Built 840 feet above sea level, Target Field has the 5th-highest altitude in MLB, which tends to lead to higher offensive output.. Out of all the teams playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.
Total RBIs

Ryan Jeffers o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his overall offensive skill, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ryan Jeffers is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. The #7 field in MLB for boosting batting average to righties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Ryan Jeffers will hold that advantage in today's game.. Ryan Jeffers has seen a notable gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 89.2-mph average to last season's 86.9-mph mark.
Total RBIs

Trevor Larnach o0.5 Total RBIs (+225)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his overall offensive talent, Trevor Larnach ranks in the 80th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Trevor Larnach is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 6th-best venue in the league for run-scoring.. Trevor Larnach will hold the platoon advantage over Paul Skenes today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter metrics across the board, and Trevor Larnach will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs

Byron Buxton o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Byron Buxton as Major League Baseball's 11th-best home run batter.. Byron Buxton is projected to bat 1st in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Target Field as the 6th-best venue in the league for run-scoring.. Extreme groundball bats like Byron Buxton are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Skenes.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Byron Buxton will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Outs Recorded

Paul Skenes o15.5 Outs Recorded (+150)
Projection 17.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Paul Skenes projects as the 2nd-best starter in Major League Baseball currently, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Throwing 94.9 adjusted pitches per GS this year on average, Paul Skenes falls in the 92nd percentile.. It is expected that we will see a Pitchers Umpire (Austin Jones) in charge of the strike zone today.. The 10th-deepest CF fences among all major league stadiums are found in Target Field.. Target Field has the 5th-highest average fence height among all parks.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Matt Wallner o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-145)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Matt Wallner as the game's 10th-best home run hitter.. Target Field profiles as the #7 stadium in MLB for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Matt Wallner will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Paul Skenes today.. Extreme groundball bats like Matt Wallner tend to be more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Paul Skenes.. Matt Wallner will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.
Outs Recorded

Joe Ryan u17.5 Outs Recorded (+150)
Projection 17.2 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The Pittsburgh Pirates have been the unluckiest offense in MLB this year, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), and are likely to perform better going forward. The #4 stadium in the majors for boosting BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Target Field.. Considering that flyball hitters hold a significant advantage over groundball pitchers, Joe Ryan and his 41.3% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot today facing 3 opposing GB hitters.. Out of all the teams playing today, the worst infield defense is that of the Minnesota Twins.. Joe Ryan's 92.8-mph velocity on his fastball this season is a significant 1.2-mph fall off from last season's 94-mph mark.