Washington @ St. Louis picks
Busch Stadium
WAS vs STL Picks
MLB Picks
Strikeouts Thrown

Andre Pallante o3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+114)
Projection 4.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The Washington Nationals have 3 batters in their projected lineup today with a high (i.e. over 27%) underlying K% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT X) (Riley Adams, Brady House, James Wood).. Projected catcher Pedro Pages projects as a good pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Andre Pallante has a reverse platoon split and should be helped facing 6 opposite-handed hitters in this game.. Given that groundball hitters perform worse against groundball pitchers, Andre Pallante (60.1% GB% per the leading projection system, THE BAT) is well-situated in this game with 5 GB hitters in the opposing team's projected lineup.. Home field advantage generally improves pitcher stats across the board, and Andre Pallante will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

James Wood o0.5 Total RBIs (+250)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 86°.. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, James Wood will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total RBIs

Josh Bell o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Josh Bell is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 86°.
Total RBIs

Willson Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Willson Contreras is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 86°.. Willson Contreras will hold the platoon advantage against MacKenzie Gore today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

James Wood o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+120)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When estimating his BABIP talent, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 86°.. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, James Wood will have the upper hand in today's game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Josh Bell o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+125)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Josh Bell is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 3rd-most favorable hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this contest.
Total Bases

Lars Nootbaar u1.5 Total Bases (-175)
Projection 0.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Lars Nootbaar has primarily hit in the top-half of the lineup this year (90% of the time), but he is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Busch Stadium grades out as the #24 venue in Major League Baseball for left-handed home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. MacKenzie Gore will have the handedness advantage against Lars Nootbaar in today's game.. Lars Nootbaar has recorded a .261 BABIP this year, ranking in the 16th percentile.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

CJ Abrams o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+100)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 79th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent.. CJ Abrams is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 86°.. Hitting from the opposite that Andre Pallante throws from, CJ Abrams will have the upper hand in today's game.
Total Bases

Pedro Pages u1.5 Total Bases (-195)
Projection 0.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pedro Pages in the 24th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Pedro Pages is projected to hit 8th in the batting order in this game.. Busch Stadium grades out as the #24 park in Major League Baseball for righty home runs, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Pedro Pages has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 2nd-deepest RF fences today.. With a .265 wOBA in the past two weeks, Pedro Pages has been struggling at the plate.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Daylen Lile o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+135)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all parks.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-hottest weather of all games today at 86°.. Daylen Lile will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Andre Pallante today.