Cleveland @ Houston picks

The Guardians are 28th in the majors in OPS (.658) and they plate a run in the first inning at the lowest rate (21.35%). The Astros are second-last in run first inning rate (21.98%) and are missing two of their top hitters in Yordan Alvarez and Jeremy Pena. The 'Stros will have ace Hunter Brown and his MLB-best 1.82 ERA on the hill. The Guardians respond with prospect Joey Cantillo (3.41 ERA through 31 2/3 innings). Cantillo started the year in the bullpen but was called back to the rotation last week, throwing 3 1/3 innings of shutout ball against the Cubs. 

Zack Short's batting average skill is projected to be in the 2nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Zack Short is projected to hit 8th in the batting order today.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to worse offense.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.. Zack Short hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.8% — 96th percentile) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 9th-deepest CF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Jose Altuve is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Jose Altuve will have the upper hand in today's game.. Jose Altuve pulls a lot of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Taylor Trammell will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Johnathan Rodriguez's BABIP skill is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions in the league are found in Minute Maid Park.

Hitting from the opposite that Hunter Brown throws from, Bo Naylor will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Extreme groundball bats like Bo Naylor are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Hunter Brown.. Bo Naylor has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.7-mph to 92.8-mph over the past 7 days.. There has been a significant improvement in Bo Naylor's launch angle from last year's 19.5° to 23.2° this year.. Bo Naylor's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, rising from 35.5% on the season to 50% in the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mauricio Dubon in the 8th percentile as it relates to his home run talent.. Mauricio Dubon is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in today's game.. Minute Maid Park has the 3rd-tallest average fence height among all major league stadiums.. Minute Maid Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to worse offense.. The Minute Maid Park roof figures to be closed today, making the temperature in this match-up -7° colder than the average outdoor game of all games today — favorable for pitching.

HRs are generally more common at ballparks with shallow fences, and Minute Maid Park has the shallowest among all major league stadiums.. Brayan Rocchio has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 86.5-mph average to last year's 84.5-mph average.. Brayan Rocchio has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 86.5-mph to 91.2-mph in the past week.. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Brayan Rocchio has been unlucky this year. His .208 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .288.

Carlos Santana is penciled in 4th in the lineup today.. Carlos Santana's launch angle in recent games (24.8° in the past two weeks) is a significant increase over his 16.8° seasonal figure.. When it comes to plate discipline, Carlos Santana's skill is quite strong, posting a 1.59 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 83rd percentile.

The 2nd-shallowest left field dimensions in the league are found in Minute Maid Park.. Hitting from the opposite that Joey Cantillo throws from, Shay Whitcomb will have an edge today.. Shay Whitcomb will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Shay Whitcomb has gotten much quicker this year, improving from last year's 27.41 ft/sec to 27.9 ft/sec now (according to Statcast's Sprint Speed metric).

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 88th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. Nolan Jones has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (62% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Nolan Jones will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Hunter Brown in today's game.. Nolan Jones has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the league's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Nolan Jones has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 91.9-mph average to last year's 88.3-mph average.