St. Louis @ Chicago picks
Wrigley Field
STL vs CHC Picks
MLB Picks
Erick Fedde has struggled against the Cubs, yielding a .863 OPS over 96 at-bats. With Matt Boyd ranking among the NL's Top 10 in ERA, back Chicago to cover the run line at Wrigley.
The Cardinals have a below-average offense against left-handed pitchers with a 17th-ranked wOBA and 22nd-rank ISO, and Cubs southpaw Matthew Boyd has taken care of business to the tune of a 2.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Boyd has also allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past seven starts. Of course, the Chicago lineup continues to mash and ranks third in both wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers.
Kyle Tucker o0.5 Total Home Runs (+400)
In five plate appearances against Fedde, Tucker boasts a 1.400 slugging percentage and one home run.
Ian Happ o0.5 Total Home Runs (+450)
Fedde surrendered seven runs in each of his past two starts, allowing a combined four home runs across those outings. Happ went deep in one of those two games.
Erick Fedde u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (+104)
Fedde will enter this game with one of the lowest K rates in baseball among starters. The Cubs have made remarkable improvements in this area compared to last season, with a Top-10 chase contact rate and the fourth-lowest whiff rate in the majors.
Dansby Swanson o0.5 Total RBIs (+159)
Swanson profiles well against the breaking ball stuff that starter Erick Fedde will throw the majority of the time, ranking in the Top 3 in batting average and expected average amongst Cubs against both the slider and cutter.
Kyle Tucker o1.5 Total Bases (+116)
Tucker will come into this game leading Chicago in hard-hit rate against the sinker, the cutter, and the sweeper — all three pitches that Fedde will use. It's no wonder that he has a .374 expected batting average and .807 expected slugging in his five head-to-head meetings with the hurler.
