St. Louis @ Chicago picks

Erick Fedde has struggled against the Cubs, yielding a .863 OPS over 96 at-bats. With Matt Boyd ranking among the NL's Top 10 in ERA, back Chicago to cover the run line at Wrigley.

The Cardinals have a below-average offense against left-handed pitchers with a 17th-ranked wOBA and 22nd-rank ISO, and Cubs southpaw Matthew Boyd has taken care of business to the tune of a 2.65 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Boyd has also allowed two runs or fewer in each of his past seven starts. Of course, the Chicago lineup continues to mash and ranks third in both wOBA and ISO against right-handed pitchers.

In five plate appearances against Fedde, Tucker boasts a 1.400 slugging percentage and one home run.

Fedde surrendered seven runs in each of his past two starts, allowing a combined four home runs across those outings. Happ went deep in one of those two games.

Fedde will enter this game with one of the lowest K rates in baseball among starters. The Cubs have made remarkable improvements in this area compared to last season, with a Top-10 chase contact rate and the fourth-lowest whiff rate in the majors.

Swanson profiles well against the breaking ball stuff that starter Erick Fedde will throw the majority of the time, ranking in the Top 3 in batting average and expected average amongst Cubs against both the slider and cutter. 

Tucker will come into this game leading Chicago in hard-hit rate against the sinker, the cutter, and the sweeper — all three pitches that Fedde will use. It's no wonder that he has a .374 expected batting average and .807 expected slugging in his five head-to-head meetings with the hurler.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Kyle Tucker will have the upper hand in today's game.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Kyle Tucker will hold that advantage in today's game.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 20th-best hitter in MLB.. Seiya Suzuki is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. Wrigley Field has the 6th-shallowest left field dimensions in the league.. Seiya Suzuki will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.. Seiya Suzuki has made substantial strides with his Barrel%, improving his 11.5% rate last year to 19.7% this season.

Todd Tichenor grades out as a Huge Hitters Umpire and is scheduled to be umping in today's game.. The St. Louis Cardinals have 6 bats in the projected offense that will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in this matchup.. Matthew Boyd has been lucky this year, posting a 2.65 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 3.93 — a 1.28 disparity.

Throwing 93 adjusted pitches per start this year on average, Erick Fedde places him the 85th percentile.. It may be sensible to expect worse results for the Chicago Cubs offense in the future, considering that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the 3rd-luckiest offense in the league this year.. Pedro Pages, the Cardinals's expected catcher in today's game, grades out as a good pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The #8 venue in the league for suppressing walks, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Wrigley Field.. Wrigley Field has the 5th-deepest right field fences in the majors.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Lars Nootbaar's launch angle this year (17.7°) is considerably higher than his 5.9° figure last year.. Despite posting a .314 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Lars Nootbaar has suffered from bad luck given the .027 difference between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .341.. With a 1.69 K/BB rate this year, Lars Nootbaar has shown favorable plate discipline, placing in the 79th percentile.

As it relates to his home run skill, Nolan Gorman ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Nolan Gorman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 88.8-mph to 94.8-mph in the past two weeks.. Nolan Gorman's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased recently, rising from 47.5% on the season to 63% over the past two weeks.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Pedro Pages will have the upper hand today.

Dansby Swanson is projected to hit 6th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be a downgrade from his 70% rate of hitting in the top-half of the lineup this year.. Wrigley Field projects as the #22 park in baseball for run-scoring, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Among all major league stadiums, the 7th-highest fences are at Wrigley Field.. According to the weather report, the temperature and humidity for this game will be the 4th-most suitable for pitching of all games on the slate.. The wind projects to be blowing in from LF at 15-mph in this match-up, the strongest of the day for hurlers.

Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Reese McGuire will have an edge in today's game.. Reese McGuire will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Reese McGuire has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.2-mph average to last season's 89.1-mph mark.. Compared to last year, Reese McGuire has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 15% to 27.5% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 97th percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Brendan Donovan is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest elevation in the league. High elevation generally leads to more offense.. Brendan Donovan has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. Brendan Donovan has made substantial improvements with his Barrel% recently, improving his 9.4% seasonal rate to 21.6% over the past two weeks.