Kansas City @ Arizona picks
Chase Field
KC vs AZ Picks
MLB Picks
1st 5 Innings Spread

Tom Oldfield
Betting Analyst
While Arizona’s 44-45 record doesn’t scream “top-tier offense,” there are slugging threats up and down the lineup. The D-Backs sit third in the majors in runs (454) and fourth in home runs (131), and that spells trouble for Lorenzen, who’s posted a 4.95 ERA and a 1.37 WHIP this season.
Total Home Runs


Tony Sartori
Betting Analyst
Total RBIs

Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 10th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to more offense.. Bobby Witt Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 43.7% to 50.3%.
Total RBIs

Salvador Perez o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the league for RHB batting average.. Salvador Perez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 92-mph in the last week.. Salvador Perez has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 15.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal lower than his 30.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Total RBIs

Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the league for lefty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Anthony DeSclafani throws from, Jac Caglianone will have an edge in today's game.. Extreme flyball hitters like Jac Caglianone are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Anthony DeSclafani.. Jac Caglianone's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 9.3% on the season to 25% in the past week's worth of games.
Total RBIs

Ketel Marte o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 11th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the league for lefty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to more offense.. Ketel Marte will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total Bases

Jac Caglianone o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the league for lefty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Anthony DeSclafani throws from, Jac Caglianone will have an edge in today's game.. Extreme flyball hitters like Jac Caglianone are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Anthony DeSclafani.. Jac Caglianone's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 9.3% on the season to 25% in the past week's worth of games.
Total Bases

Bobby Witt Jr. o1.5 Total Bases (-115)
Projection 2.2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Bobby Witt Jr. projects as the 10th-best batter in the league, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Bobby Witt Jr. is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the league for RHB batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to more offense.. Bobby Witt Jr.'s ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 43.7% to 50.3%.
Total Bases

Ketel Marte o1.5 Total Bases (+110)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 11th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup today.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the league for lefty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to more offense.. Ketel Marte will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total Bases

Salvador Perez o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Salvador Perez in the 89th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Salvador Perez is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Chase Field as the 2nd-best field in the league for RHB batting average.. Salvador Perez has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90-mph to 92-mph in the last week.. Salvador Perez has had some very poor luck with his home runs this year; his 15.3 HR per 600 plate appearances mark is a good deal lower than his 30.3 Expected HR/600, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Vinnie Pasquantino o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-135)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Vinnie Pasquantino is projected to bat 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the league for lefty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Anthony DeSclafani throws from, Vinnie Pasquantino will have an advantage today.. Vinnie Pasquantino has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 100.2-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 92.9-mph.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jac Caglianone o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-105)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 2nd-best stadium in the league for lefty batting average.. Built 1059 feet above sea level, Chase Field has the 2nd-highest altitude in the majors, which often leads to more offense.. Hitting from the opposite that Anthony DeSclafani throws from, Jac Caglianone will have an edge in today's game.. Extreme flyball hitters like Jac Caglianone are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Anthony DeSclafani.. Jac Caglianone's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased recently, increasing from 9.3% on the season to 25% in the past week's worth of games.