St. Louis @ Chicago picks
Wrigley Field
STL vs CHC Picks
MLB Picks
MoneyLine
Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst
-143
-135
-138
-145
-141
-155
Both of these teams have struggling starters on the hill but the Cubs have a slightly better bullpen and a significantly better offense. They are fourth in the majors in OPS (.768) and second in runs per game (5.33). Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 15th in OPS (.716) with that number slimming to .690 on the road. The Cards have been shut out in five of their last eight games which includes the tail-end of their series against the Cubs in St. Louis last week. In addition, the Cubs have home-field advantage and have gone 15-5 in their last 20 games at Wrigley.
Total RBIs
Seiya Suzuki o0.5 Total RBIs (+125)
Projection 0.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o0.5 +110
-
-
o0.5 +125
o0.5 +116
o0.5 +112
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.. Seiya Suzuki will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total RBIs
Carson Kelly o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o0.5 +195
-
-
o0.5 +200
o0.5 +190
-
Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.. Carson Kelly will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.. With a .356 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Carson Kelly is positioned in the 87th percentile for hitting ability.. Grading out in the 92nd percentile, Carson Kelly sports a .371 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.
Total RBIs
Dansby Swanson o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o0.5 +155
-
-
o0.5 +155
o0.5 +146
o0.5 +125
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Dansby Swanson is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Dansby Swanson o1.5 Total Bases (+135)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 +115
o1.5 +135
-
o1.5 +125
o1.5 +120
o1.5 +107
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent.. Dansby Swanson is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Dansby Swanson will hold that advantage today.
Total Bases
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Total Bases (+100)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 -115
o1.5 +100
-
o1.5 +100
o1.5 -106
o1.5 -118
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.. Seiya Suzuki will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Seiya Suzuki o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-155)
Projection 2.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o2.5 +105
-
-
o1.5 -155
o1.5 -161
-
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Seiya Suzuki ranks as the 18th-best batter in Major League Baseball.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game.. Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.. Seiya Suzuki will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total Bases
Ian Happ o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 +100
o1.5 +120
-
o1.5 +115
o1.5 +108
o1.5 +100
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ian Happ in the 90th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability.. Ian Happ is projected to hit 1st in the lineup in this matchup.. Wrigley Field sits at the 10th-highest altitude in Major League Baseball. High elevation often leads to better offense.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.. The switch-hitting Ian Happ will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Miles Mikolas.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs
Carson Kelly o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+105)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 -110
-
-
o1.5 +105
o1.5 -106
-
Wrigley Field has the 4th-shallowest LF dimensions among all major league stadiums.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and this game is projected to have the 4th-hottest weather of all games on the slate at 85°.. Carson Kelly will hold the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.. With a .356 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Carson Kelly is positioned in the 87th percentile for hitting ability.. Grading out in the 92nd percentile, Carson Kelly sports a .371 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.
