Boston @ Washington picks

Boston hands the ball to right-hander Lucas Giolito, who profiles as a strong fade candidate. Analytically speaking, Giolito has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. Entering this matchup, he ranks in the 14th percentile in expected ERA (xERA), sixth percentile in expected batting average (xBA), 21st percentile in average exit velocity, and 17th percentile in hard-hit rate. Not only is Giolito due for regression, but the bullpen behind him is, too.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, James Wood will have the upper hand in today's game.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Bats such as James Wood with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Lucas Giolito who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to bat 4th on the lineup card in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 58% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Over the last week, Carlos Narvaez's 66.7% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 41.8%.. Checking in at the 79th percentile, Carlos Narvaez sports a .348 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

When assessing his home run ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Wilyer Abreu will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka in today's game.. Wilyer Abreu pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.8% — 87th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.. Hitters such as Wilyer Abreu with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mike Soroka who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.

When it comes to his BABIP skill, James Wood is projected as the best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. James Wood is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, James Wood will have the upper hand in today's game.. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Josh Bell is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Josh Bell has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Josh Bell are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.. Josh Bell will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Because groundball batters have a big edge over flyball pitchers, Lucas Giolito and his 37.1% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) finds himself in a tough spot in this outing facing 5 opposing GB batters.. Lucas Giolito will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup.. Among all SPs, Lucas Giolito's fastball spin rate of 2220 rpm ranks in the 20th percentile this year.

Riley Adams has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats in all categories, and Riley Adams will hold that advantage today.. In the past week, Riley Adams's 80% rate of hitting balls at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 45.2%.. Riley Adams has been unlucky this year, notching a .190 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .283 — a .093 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Nathaniel Lowe is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an edge today.. Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball hitters like Nathaniel Lowe usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.

Projected catcher Keibert Ruiz profiles as a weak pitch framer, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums.. With 6 hitters of the opposite hand in the opposing team's projected lineup, Mike Soroka will have a tough matchup while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's outing.. Mike Soroka's high usage percentage of his fastball (55.2% this year) is likely weakening his results, considering they are typically much less effective than breaking or off-speed pitches.. Mike Soroka has recorded a .251 BABIP this year, making him one of the luckiest hurlers in the majors on balls in play and regression likely forthcoming.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 5th-highest level of all games on the slate at 84°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Trevor Story has made sizeable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 10.8% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the past 7 days.. Trevor Story has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 94-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.2-mph figure.