Boston @ Washington picks
Nationals Park
BOS vs WAS Picks
MLB Picks
MoneyLine
Tony Sartori
Betting Analyst
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Boston hands the ball to right-hander Lucas Giolito, who profiles as a strong fade candidate. Analytically speaking, Giolito has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this season. Entering this matchup, he ranks in the 14th percentile in expected ERA (xERA), sixth percentile in expected batting average (xBA), 21st percentile in average exit velocity, and 17th percentile in hard-hit rate. Not only is Giolito due for regression, but the bullpen behind him is, too.
Total Bases
Josh Bell o0.5 Total Bases (-170)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 +135
o0.5 -170
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o0.5 -185
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Josh Bell is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. As a switch-hitter who is best from the 0 side of the plate, Josh Bell will get to bat from his strong side against Lucas Giolito in this game.. Josh Bell has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Josh Bell are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.. Josh Bell will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Total Bases
Trevor Story o0.5 Total Bases (-170)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 +135
o0.5 -170
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o0.5 -175
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The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 81st percentile when it comes to his home run skill.. Trevor Story is penciled in 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Nationals Park has the 8th-shallowest LF dimensions among all stadiums.. Trevor Story has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 93.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.1-mph figure.
Total Bases
Wilyer Abreu o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 1.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 +115
o1.5 +130
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o1.5 +116
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When assessing his home run ability, Wilyer Abreu ranks in the 95th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Wilyer Abreu is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in this game.. Wilyer Abreu will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka in today's game.. Wilyer Abreu pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.3% — 83rd percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest RF fences today.. Hitters such as Wilyer Abreu with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mike Soroka who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.
Total Bases
Roman Anthony o0.5 Total Bases (-185)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 +120
o0.5 -185
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o1.5 +126
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The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 83rd percentile when estimating his BABIP talent.. Roman Anthony is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Roman Anthony will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka in today's game.. Roman Anthony has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.9%) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Roman Anthony has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity lately; just compare his 95.7-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal 92.9-mph mark.
Total Bases
Nathaniel Lowe o0.5 Total Bases (-170)
Projection 1.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
o1.5 +140
o0.5 -170
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o0.5 -185
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The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 80th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill.. Nathaniel Lowe is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this game.. Hitting from the opposite that Lucas Giolito throws from, Nathaniel Lowe will have an edge today.. Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. Extreme flyball hitters like Nathaniel Lowe usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Lucas Giolito.
