Kansas City @ Seattle picks
T-Mobile Park
KC vs SEA Picks
MLB Picks
Hits Allowed


Andrew Caley
Senior Betting Analyst
The Mariners are coming off a red-hot June where they ranked second in batting average, seventh in OPS, and third in wRC+. Lorenzen is little more than an innings-eater at this point. He ranks in the 32nd percentile in xERA and the 28th in xBA and has allowed six or more hits in eight of his last 14 starts.
Total RBIs

Julio Rodriguez o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his batting average talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 9th-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage today.. Julio Rodriguez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 94.8-mph over the past week.
Total RBIs

Jac Caglianone o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers.. Jac Caglianone will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Emerson Hancock today.. Jac Caglianone may have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.. Hitters such as Jac Caglianone with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Emerson Hancock who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 9th-worst out of every team today.
Total RBIs

Bobby Witt Jr. o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Bobby Witt Jr. ranks as the 9th-best batter in MLB.. Bobby Witt Jr. is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. Bobby Witt Jr. has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 10th-worst out of every team today.. Bobby Witt Jr. has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.6-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal average of 94.9-mph.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Kyle Isbel o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-185)
Projection 1.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Batting from the opposite that Emerson Hancock throws from, Kyle Isbel will have an advantage today.. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Isbel has a strong chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. Kyle Isbel pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.7% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 10th-worst out of every team today.. Kyle Isbel has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 87.2-mph to 90.6-mph in the past two weeks' worth of games.
Total Bases

Julio Rodriguez o1.5 Total Bases (-105)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When assessing his batting average talent, Julio Rodriguez is projected as the 9th-best batter in the majors by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Julio Rodriguez is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers.. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Julio Rodriguez will hold that advantage today.. Julio Rodriguez has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.8-mph to 94.8-mph over the past week.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jac Caglianone o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+115)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
T-Mobile Park has the smallest outfield in the majors — generally good for homers.. Jac Caglianone will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Emerson Hancock today.. Jac Caglianone may have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP.. Hitters such as Jac Caglianone with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Emerson Hancock who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 10th-worst out of every team today.