Detroit @ Washington Picks & Props

When starting against a right-handed pitcher this year, Kerry Carpenter has been pulled from the game early 33% of the time. Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Kerry Carpenter has been very fortunate when it comes to with his wOBA this year; his .332 mark is significantly inflated relative to his .317 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Sporting an 8.21 K/BB rate this year, Kerry Carpenter has displayed poor plate discipline, grading out in the 1st percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Nationals Park as the 4th-worst field in baseball for righty batting average. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Trevor Williams will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Gleyber Torres in today's matchup... and it's an over-sized mismatch considering Williams's large platoon split. Gleyber Torres will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's game. Gleyber Torres's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has fallen off lately, falling from 18.2% on the season to 0% over the past week.

When starting against a right-handed starter this year, Colt Keith has been pulled from the game early 30% of the time. The #4 ballpark in the league for suppressing batting average to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Playing on the road generally weakens batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Colt Keith today. Colt Keith's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off lately; his 92.7-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 87.3-mph in the past week.

The #4 ballpark in the league for suppressing batting average to left-handed batters, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Nationals Park. Built just 23 feet above sea level, Nationals Park has one of the lowest elevations in Major League Baseball, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Riley Greene will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today. Riley Greene's average exit velocity has fallen off in recent games; his 90.2-mph seasonal EV has decreased to 82.9-mph over the past week. In terms of his batting average, Riley Greene has had some very good luck this year. His .296 BA has been inflated compared to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .263.

Wenceel Perez is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 63% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season. As a switch-hitter who is stronger from the 0 side of the plate, Wenceel Perez will get to bat from his strong side against a pitcher with a large platoon split (Trevor Williams) today. Wenceel Perez pulls a lot of his flyballs (37% — 95th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Wenceel Perez has made significant improvements with his Barrel%, upping his 4.4% rate last season to 13.8% this year. Compared to last year, Wenceel Perez has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for home runs, increasing his percentage of balls hit between 23° and 34° from 14.1% to 23.8% this season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Daylen Lile in the 79th percentile as it relates to his batting average talent. The 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in the majors are found in Nationals Park. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Daylen Lile will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats. Daylen Lile has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.4-mph to 93.6-mph in the last 7 days.

The 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in the majors are found in Nationals Park. Parker Meadows will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Williams in today's matchup... and moreover, Williams has a large platoon split. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Parker Meadows can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.306) suggests that Parker Meadows has been unlucky this year with his .266 actual wOBA.

The 8th-shallowest RF dimensions in the majors are found in Nationals Park. Zach McKinstry will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trevor Williams in today's game... and moreover, Williams has a large platoon split. Zach McKinstry will probably have an edge against every reliever for the game's entirety, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP. Zach McKinstry's launch angle in recent games (23.8° over the past 14 days) is significantly better than his 14.5° seasonal mark. Zach McKinstry's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved from last season to this one, going from 44.5% to 53.5%.

In the majors, Nationals Park's LF fences are the 10th-shallowest. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Drew Millas will hold that advantage today. Ranking in the 76th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.29 ft/sec since the start of last season, Drew Millas is quite toolsy.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brady House in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. In the majors, Nationals Park's LF fences are the 10th-shallowest. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Holton throws from, Brady House will have the upper hand today. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Brady House will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Alex Call is penciled in 5th in the lineup in today's game. Alex Call will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyler Holton in today's game. Alex Call has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Alex Call will hold that advantage in today's game.

Nathaniel Lowe's BABIP ability is projected in the 79th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today. Nathaniel Lowe has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (41.8%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Nathaniel Lowe will hold that advantage in today's game.

Jake Rogers pulls a lot of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Jake Rogers has suffered from bad luck since the start of last season. His .262 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .282.

In the majors, Nationals Park's LF fences are the 10th-shallowest. In terms of the ability to lift the ball for power, Dillon Dingler ranks in the 79th percentile with a 17.1° launch angle, which is among the steepest angles in the game. Dillon Dingler has compiled a .337 BABIP this year, grading out in the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Vierling in the 82nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Matt Vierling has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Matt Vierling has had some very poor luck since the start of last season. His .314 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .327. Sporting a .267 Expected Batting Average (an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) since the start of last season , Matt Vierling is positioned in the 79th percentile. Ranking in the 87th percentile for Sprint Speed at 28.8 ft/sec since the start of last season, Matt Vierling is remarkably athletic.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects CJ Abrams in the 79th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. CJ Abrams is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. CJ Abrams pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.3% — 75th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences today. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats in all categories, and CJ Abrams will hold that advantage in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in the league as it relates to his BABIP talent. James Wood is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. James Wood has a 97th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and James Wood will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jacob Young in the 85th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Holton throws from, Jacob Young will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Jacob Young has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (43.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Jacob Young will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Spencer Torkelson is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. Spencer Torkelson pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (36.6% — 94th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 10th-shallowest LF fences today. Spencer Torkelson has made big gains with his Barrel%, bettering his 6.8% rate last year to 14.1% this year. Spencer Torkelson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, increasing from 17.6% to 26.8%. Over the last 7 days, Spencer Torkelson's 42.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 26.8%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Amed Rosario in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average skill. Amed Rosario is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Tyler Holton throws from, Amed Rosario will have an edge today. Amed Rosario has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of the game's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers.

Riley Adams will hold the platoon advantage against Tyler Holton in today's game. Riley Adams has a 78th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Riley Adams will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats. Riley Adams's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, increasing from 45.2% on the season to 80% in the past 7 days.

Josh Bell is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Josh Bell has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 10th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Among every team on the slate today, the 4th-worst infield defense is that of the Detroit Tigers. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Josh Bell will hold that advantage today. Josh Bell has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, improving his 11.1% seasonal rate to 16.7% in the last 7 days.

Javier Baez has gone over 0.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.