Philadelphia @ Atlanta picks

Although Spencer Strider owns an ERA north of 4.00, the Braves right-hander is due for positive regression against a Phillies squad he’s held to a .492 OPS over nine starts. Back Atlanta to prevail at home in this NL East rivalry.

Spencer Strider is off to a so-so start this season at 3-5 with a 4.07 ERA and 1.14 WHIP, but he still has 53 strikeouts in 42 innings. He's also returned to his normal self as of late with 29 strikeouts — 13, eight, and eight — and four earned runs in 17 innings over his last three starts.

The Braves righthander started in Philadelphia last month and had seven strikeouts despite lasting just 4 2/3 innings. He's lasted at least five innings in all five starts since then, though.

J.T. Realmuto's BABIP ability is projected in the 88th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Truist Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the league for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer Ks), and the weather report expects the 5th-highest temperatures of all games today at 87°.. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates J.T. Realmuto's true offensive skill to be a .331, implying that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .031 deviation between that figure and his actual .300 wOBA.

Ozzie Albies is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game.. Truist Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the league for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. The switch-hitting Ozzie Albies will get to bat from his strong side (0) today against Ranger Suarez.. Extreme groundball hitters like Ozzie Albies tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Ranger Suarez.

When assessing his batting average ability, Trea Turner is projected as the 10th-best batter in baseball by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trea Turner is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup.. Truist Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the league for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Trea Turner's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 15.9% to 18.9%.

Matt Olson projects as the 18th-best home run batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Matt Olson is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Truist Park ranks as the #6 ballpark in baseball for lefty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 3rd-shallowest CF fences in the league are found in Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the league's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Truist Park ranks as the #6 ballpark in baseball for lefty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 3rd-shallowest CF fences in the league are found in Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.

Max Kepler is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. Truist Park ranks as the #6 ballpark in baseball for lefty base hits, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The 3rd-shallowest CF fences in the league are found in Truist Park.. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Max Kepler will have the handedness advantage over Spencer Strider in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nick Castellanos in the 91st percentile when it comes to his batting average skill.. Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Truist Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the league for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. In the past two weeks' worth of games, Nick Castellanos's 25% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 22%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Sean Murphy in the 91st percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Truist Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the league for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Sean Murphy will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Ranger Suarez in today's game.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense grades out as the worst out of all the teams playing today.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Marcell Ozuna ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Marcell Ozuna is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Truist Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the league for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Marcell Ozuna will have the handedness advantage against Ranger Suarez today.

When it comes to his home run ability, Austin Riley ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Austin Riley is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Truist Park grades out as the #6 stadium in the league for righty BABIP, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Truist Park sits at the 3rd-highest elevation among all major league parks. High elevation often leads to more offense.. Batting from the opposite that Ranger Suarez throws from, Austin Riley will have an edge in today's matchup.