Chicago @ Houston picks

Houston is now 8-2 in its last 10 outings while building a comfortable lead at the top of the AL West. It’s more than a month since the Astros last lost a series, and they shut down the potent Philadelphia Phillies earlier this week — giving up just one run in a three-game sweep.

The Cubs are fourth in the majors in OPS (.769) with that number ticking up to .789 on the road. The surging Astros are eighth in the majors in BA (.256) over the last 30 days. They should get to Cubs righty Colin Rea who is in the bottom 10th percentile in xERA (5.23) and xBA. Meanwhile, Lance McCullers Jr. will come off the IL to start for Houston today. He has seen his career derailed by injuries and has a 4.91 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP in seven starts this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill.. Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. There has been a significant improvement in Dansby Swanson's launch angle from last season's 10.2° to 14.4° this season.. Despite posting a .305 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Dansby Swanson has experienced some negative variance given the .026 gap between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .331.. Dansby Swanson has averaged 25.9 long-balls per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 78th percentile for power.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 18th-best batter in baseball, per the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Hitters such as Seiya Suzuki with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr. who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum.. The Barrel% of Seiya Suzuki has significantly improved, with an increase from 11.5% last year to 19.2% this season.. Seiya Suzuki has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, upping his 19.2% seasonal rate to 25.8% in the last 14 days.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best batter in the league, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. Kyle Tucker will have the handedness advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. today.. Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Tucker tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Lance McCullers Jr... In the past two weeks, Kyle Tucker's 32.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 20.6%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jake Meyers in the 84th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (84% of the time), but he is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Jake Meyers will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Compared to last season, Jake Meyers has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 44.4% to 51.3% this season.. Placing in the 99th percentile, Jake Meyers has notched a .374 BABIP this year.

Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats across the board, and Victor Caratini will hold that advantage today.. Victor Caratini has made sizeable gains with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 8.1% seasonal rate to 15.2% over the past two weeks.. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.6°, Victor Caratini has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 33.8° angle over the past 7 days.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 88th percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Pete Crow-Armstrong is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. Pete Crow-Armstrong will have the handedness advantage against Lance McCullers Jr. in today's game.. Pete Crow-Armstrong has made significant strides with his Barrel%, improving his 8% rate last season to 13.8% this season.. Pete Crow-Armstrong's launch angle this season (22.8°) is significantly higher than his 16.7° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 88th percentile when estimating his batting average skill.. Jose Altuve is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Jose Altuve pulls many of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Jose Altuve will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Busch in the 91st percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for dingers.. Hitting from the opposite that Lance McCullers Jr. throws from, Michael Busch will have the upper hand today.. Michael Busch has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs of late; just compare his 97.5-mph average over the last week to his seasonal average of 93.5-mph.. Michael Busch's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has improved from last season to this one, rising from 18.1% to 22.8%.

Considering both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Lance McCullers Jr. is projected to throw 75 pitches in today's outing by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the least of all pitchers today.. The 3rd-best projected offense on the slate today in terms of overall batting skill belongs to the Chicago Cubs.. Among all stadiums, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. Given that groundball pitchers struggle the most against flyball hitters, Lance McCullers Jr. (46.9% GB% according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be a bit disadvantaged in this game with 2 FB hitters in Chicago's projected lineup.. Out of all SPs, Lance McCullers Jr.'s fastball velocity of 90.7 mph is in the 16th percentile this year.

Minute Maid Park has the least fair ground among all major league stadiums — generally good for dingers.. Taylor Trammell will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Colin Rea today.. Taylor Trammell has big-time HR ability (76th percentile) if he makes contact, but that's usually a big "IF" (28.7% K%). Today, however, opposing pitcher Colin Rea struggles to strike batters out (14th percentile K%) — great news for Trammell.. Taylor Trammell will hold the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.