Philadelphia @ Atlanta picks

Both teams have trended toward the Under recently, with only three of the past 10 games for each side eclipsing the total. Additionally, this will be the third series of the season between the NL East rivals. There have been more than nine runs in just two of the six games, and in only two of 10 dating back to last season.

Castellanos is 3-for-6 lifetime against the right-hander, and the outfielder thrives at Citizens Bank Park, hitting .313 at home with six bombs. Most of Castellanos's power output is against righties as well, boasting seven long balls. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability.. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Among every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Marcell Ozuna will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.. Over the past 7 days, Marcell Ozuna's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.1% up to 18.8%.

Drake Baldwin is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game.. Drake Baldwin will have the handedness advantage over Mick Abel today.. Hitters such as Drake Baldwin with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mick Abel who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.. Among every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Drake Baldwin will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°.. Michael Harris II will hold the platoon advantage over Mick Abel in today's matchup.. Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.. Extreme flyball batters like Michael Harris II are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mick Abel.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°.. Batting from the opposite that Bryce Elder throws from, Bryson Stott will have the upper hand today.. Over the last week, Bryson Stott's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.4% up to 28.6%.. Bryson Stott's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 16.2% to 22.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the league's 3rd-best home run hitter.. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°.. Kyle Schwarber will hold the platoon advantage over Bryce Elder in today's game.. Kyle Schwarber's launch angle this year (19.3°) is quite a bit better than his 14.9° figure last year.

Max Kepler is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. Hitting from the opposite that Bryce Elder throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge in today's game.. The Barrel% of Max Kepler has significantly improved, with an increase from 6.2% last year to 13.1% this season.. In the past week's worth of games, Max Kepler's 42.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.5%.. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Max Kepler has had bad variance on his side this year. His .300 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .334.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Austin Riley as baseball's 20th-best home run batter.. Austin Riley is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Austin Riley hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the league's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. Among every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Austin Riley will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky this year, compiling a .292 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .038 gap.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Bohm in the 97th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Alec Bohm has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (51% of the time), but he is penciled in 3rd in the lineup in this matchup.. Alec Bohm hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39% — 88th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences today.. Alec Bohm has posted a .288 Expected Batting Average this year, checking in at the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.. By putting up a .277 batting average this year, Alec Bohm grades out in the 78th percentile.

Nick Castellanos's batting average skill is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Nick Castellanos is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in today's game.. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 5th-hottest temperature of the day at 85°.. Nick Castellanos has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 9.2% seasonal rate to 17.1% over the past two weeks.. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected HR per 600 plate appearances (21.1) provides evidence that Nick Castellanos has suffered from bad luck this year with his 14.5 actual HR/600.