Philadelphia @ Atlanta Picks & Props

Max Kepler is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Bryce Elder throws from, Max Kepler will have an edge in today's game. The Barrel% of Max Kepler has significantly improved, with an increase from 6.2% last year to 13.1% this season. In the past week's worth of games, Max Kepler's 42.9% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 18.5%.

Bryce Elder will hold the platoon advantage against Nick Castellanos in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically reduces batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Nick Castellanos today. In the past week, Nick Castellanos's 12.5% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 21.8%. With a 3.92 K/BB rate this year, Nick Castellanos has shown bad plate discipline, placing in the 21st percentile.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Nick Allen hits many of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing MLB's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Nick Allen are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mick Abel. Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Home field advantage typically improves hitter stats across the board, and Nick Allen will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryson Stott in the 87th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Bryce Elder throws from, Bryson Stott will have the upper hand today. Over the last week, Bryson Stott's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 5.4% up to 28.6%. Bryson Stott's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 16.2% to 22.1%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Michael Harris II in the 90th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Michael Harris II will hold the platoon advantage over Mick Abel in today's matchup. Michael Harris II hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.8% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 5th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Michael Harris II are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mick Abel.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Marcell Ozuna in the 95th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Marcell Ozuna is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Marcell Ozuna will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats.

Hitting from the same side that Mick Abel throws from, Austin Riley has a tough challenge in today's game. Typically, batters like Austin Riley who hit a lot of groundballs usually hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Mick Abel. Posting a 4.25 K/BB rate this year, Austin Riley has demonstrated poor plate discipline, grading out in the 15th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Otto Kemp in the 92nd percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Otto Kemp is remarkably quick, ranking in the 94th percentile in Sprint Speed at 29.21 ft/sec this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alex Verdugo in the 81st percentile when estimating his batting average skill. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Mick Abel throws from, Alex Verdugo will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Alex Verdugo will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which should boost all of his stats.

Mick Abel will hold the platoon advantage over Ronald Acuna Jr. in today's matchup. Ronald Acuna Jr. has been lucky in regards to with his wOBA this year; his .480 mark is a good deal higher than his .401 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

Hitting from the same side that Bryce Elder throws from, Alec Bohm has a tough challenge in today's matchup. Alec Bohm will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. In the past week's worth of games, Alec Bohm's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 6.6% down to 0%. Alec Bohm's launch angle this season (6.9°) is a significant dropoff from his 10° figure last season. Compared to his seasonal figure of 6.9°, Alec Bohm has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (2.4°) in the last two weeks.

Drake Baldwin is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Drake Baldwin will have the handedness advantage over Mick Abel today. Hitters such as Drake Baldwin with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mick Abel who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Kyle Schwarber ranks in the 97th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Kyle Schwarber will hold the platoon advantage over Bryce Elder in today's game. Kyle Schwarber's launch angle this year (19.3°) is quite a bit better than his 14.9° figure last year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects J.T. Realmuto in the 89th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. J.T. Realmuto has been unlucky this year, compiling a .292 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .330 — a .038 gap.

Bryce Elder will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Trea Turner in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically diminishes batter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which figures to be the case for Trea Turner in today's matchup. Trea Turner has taken a step back with his Barrel% lately; his 6.8% seasonal rate has dropped off to 0% in the past week. Compared to his seasonal angle of 11.7°, Trea Turner has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (4.5°) in the past two weeks. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.280) may lead us to conclude that Trea Turner has been very fortunate this year with his .295 actual batting average.

A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies. Ozzie Albies is an extreme flyball hitter and squares off against the weak outfield defense of Philadelphia (#2-worst on the slate). Ozzie Albies will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 20.3°, Ozzie Albies has significantly improved his launch angle lately, posting a 27° figure in the last week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Olson in the 96th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Matt Olson is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game. A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Hitting from the opposite that Mick Abel throws from, Matt Olson will have the upper hand today. Among every team today, the 2nd-weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.

As it relates to his BABIP skill, Brandon Marsh is projected as the 4th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). A correlation exists between high heat and more offense (and fewer whiffs), and this game is forecasted to have the 4th-hottest temperature of the day at 86°. Batting from the opposite that Bryce Elder throws from, Brandon Marsh will have an advantage in today's game. Brandon Marsh's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better recently, increasing from 17.9% on the season to 31% in the past 14 days. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Brandon Marsh has had some very poor luck this year. His .315 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .333.