St. Louis @ Cleveland picks
Progressive Field
STL vs CLE Picks
MLB Picks
1st 5 Innings MoneyLine

Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Guardians rank 25th in runs per game, 25th in average, 26th in slugging, and 22nd in home runs. They don’t get on base, nor do they hit for power with any consistency. What’s worse is their numbers are trending further downward. They have scored more than four runs just once since June 13, and their underlying metrics are putrid in this month.
Total RBIs

Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+180)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nolan Gorman projects as the 20th-best home run batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 84°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Nolan Gorman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Ortiz in today's matchup... and moreover, Ortiz has a large platoon split.. Nolan Gorman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs

David Fry o0.5 Total RBIs (+230)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
David Fry is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. David Fry pulls many of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. David Fry will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Lars Nootbaar o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Given Luis Ortiz's large platoon split, Lars Nootbaar will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Kyle Manzardo o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Manzardo will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs

Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+135)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Ortiz in today's matchup... and moreover, Ortiz has a large platoon split.
Total RBIs

Carlos Santana o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Carlos Santana is projected to bat 4th in the batting order in this game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 85°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Carlos Santana pulls a lot of his flyballs (40% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest RF fences today.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter metrics across the board, and Carlos Santana will hold that advantage in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Willson Contreras o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the lineup in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.
Total RBIs

Lane Thomas o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run skill, Lane Thomas ranks in the 75th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Lane Thomas is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 84°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Lane Thomas will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to improve all of his stats.
Outs Recorded

Sonny Gray u17.5 Outs Recorded (+122)
Projection 16.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 84°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. With 6 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Sonny Gray has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.. Sonny Gray will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
Total Bases

Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 84°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Given Luis Ortiz's large platoon split, Lars Nootbaar will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.