St. Louis @ Cleveland picks
Progressive Field
STL vs CLE Picks
MLB Picks
1st 5 Innings MoneyLine

Todd Cordell
Betting Analyst
The Guardians rank 25th in runs per game, 25th in average, 26th in slugging, and 22nd in home runs. They don’t get on base, nor do they hit for power with any consistency. What’s worse is their numbers are trending further downward. They have scored more than four runs just once since June 13, and their underlying metrics are putrid in this month.
Total RBIs

Nolan Gorman o0.5 Total RBIs (+190)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nolan Gorman projects as the 20th-best home run batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 84°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Nolan Gorman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Ortiz in today's matchup... and moreover, Ortiz has a large platoon split.. Nolan Gorman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs

Lars Nootbaar o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Given Luis Ortiz's large platoon split, Lars Nootbaar will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Kyle Manzardo o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order today.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 84°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Hitting from the opposite that Sonny Gray throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have the upper hand today.. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter metrics in all categories, and Kyle Manzardo will hold that advantage today.
Total RBIs

Alec Burleson o0.5 Total RBIs (+130)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 92nd percentile when estimating his batting average ability.. Alec Burleson is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 5th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 84°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Alec Burleson will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Ortiz in today's matchup... and moreover, Ortiz has a large platoon split.
Outs Recorded

Sonny Gray u17.5 Outs Recorded (+122)
Projection 16.4 (Under)
EV Model Rating
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 84°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. With 6 hitters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Sonny Gray has a tough challenge while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.. Sonny Gray will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today.
Total Bases

Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Total Bases (+140)
Projection 1.9 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 84°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Given Luis Ortiz's large platoon split, Lars Nootbaar will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Nolan Gorman o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (+115)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Nolan Gorman projects as the 20th-best home run batter in the game, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Nolan Gorman will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Ortiz in today's matchup... and moreover, Ortiz has a large platoon split.. Nolan Gorman pulls a lot of his flyballs (35% — 88th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards the league's 6th-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Victor Scott II o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Considering Luis Ortiz's large platoon split, Victor Scott II will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's game.. Victor Scott II has a 93rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Out of every team today, the 4th-weakest infield defense is that of the the Cleveland Guardians.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Lars Nootbaar o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-110)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Lars Nootbaar in the 93rd percentile as it relates to his overall offensive ability.. Lars Nootbaar is projected to hit 5th in the batting order today.. High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 4th-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 85°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Given Luis Ortiz's large platoon split, Lars Nootbaar will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the plate in today's matchup.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Bo Naylor o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-165)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
High temperatures are strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather forecast expects the 3rd-highest temperatures on the schedule today at 87°.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 12.7-mph in this game, the strongest of the day for hitters.. Bo Naylor will have the handedness advantage against Sonny Gray in today's game.. Bo Naylor will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Last year, Bo Naylor had an average launch angle of 17.5° on his hardest-hit balls, while this year it has significantly increased to 22.6°.