Chicago @ St. Louis picks

Fedde has only completed six innings in one of his past seven starts, and he draws a deep Chicago Cubs lineup that ranks fourth in wOBA and fifth in ISO against right-handed pitchers. On the surface, Fedde has spun it nicely during the highlighted seven-start run with a 3.13 ERA, but his 4.79 xFIP and 39.0% hard-hit rate reinforce he’s likely also overachieved. In addition to Chicago’s punch at the plate, the Cubbies also have an above average 9.1% walk rate and .328 on-base percentage against righties.

Fedde sports a concerning 3.86 BB/9 and 10.2 BB%, which both rank eighth highest out of the 71 pitchers with at least 80 innings this season, and the Cubs have an above average 9.1% walk rate and .328 on-base percentage against righties.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 97th percentile when it comes to his home run talent.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. Nolan Gorman will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.. Compared to his seasonal average of 21.7°, Nolan Gorman has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 34° angle in the last week's worth of games.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best batter in baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. Batting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Kyle Tucker will have an advantage in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°.. Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Ian Happ ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ian Happ is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Erick Fedde in today's matchup.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 18th-best hitter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. Seiya Suzuki hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (41.8% — 100th percentile) and is fortunate to face MLB's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 76th percentile when estimating his batting average talent.. Masyn Winn is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. Masyn Winn will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Boyd in today's game.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Michael Busch ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. Michael Busch will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's matchup.. Michael Busch has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 105-mph average in the past week to his seasonal EV of 93.5-mph.

Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 87°.. Carson Kelly has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.5-mph average.. Using Statcast metrics, Carson Kelly is in the 88th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .359.. Carson Kelly has averaged 30.2 dingers per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 88th percentile for power.

When estimating his home run ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an advantage in today's matchup.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the batting order today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-lowest fence height (on average) in the majors.. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the highest temperatures of the day at 91°.. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Willson Contreras will have an advantage in today's matchup.