Chicago @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Erick Fedde will have the handedness advantage against Seiya Suzuki in today's matchup. Extreme groundball hitters like Seiya Suzuki generally hit worse against extreme groundball pitchers like Erick Fedde. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Seiya Suzuki in today's game.

Nico Hoerner is penciled in 7th in the lineup today. Batting from the same side that Erick Fedde throws from, Nico Hoerner encounters a tough challenge in today's matchup. Nico Hoerner has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and has the misfortune of hitting them in the direction of MLB's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. Playing on the road generally diminishes batter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Nico Hoerner in today's game. Nico Hoerner's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off recently; his 86.8-mph seasonal figure has dropped off to 80.1-mph in the last week.

Kyle Tucker pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) but may find it hard to clear the league's 2nd-deepest RF fences today. Typically, batters like Kyle Tucker who hit a lot of flyballs tend to perform worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Erick Fedde. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Kyle Tucker in today's game. Kyle Tucker has been cold lately, with his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph dropping to 88.4-mph over the past week. Kyle Tucker's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has decreased from last season to this one, falling from 23.6% to 20.6%.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Nolan Gorman will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 21.7°, Nolan Gorman has significantly improved his launch angle recently, posting a 34° angle in the last week's worth of games.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Ian Happ ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is projected to hit 1st in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Ian Happ will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Erick Fedde in today's matchup. Ian Happ has made significant gains with his Barrel% of late, improving his 8.6% seasonal rate to 21.4% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 87th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Dansby Swanson is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Dansby Swanson hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.4% — 99th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Dansby Swanson's launch angle this season (14.5°) is quite a bit higher than his 10.2° angle last season.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brendan Donovan in the 96th percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Brendan Donovan is penciled in 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Brendan Donovan will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats. Brendan Donovan has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.9-mph to 94.6-mph in the last 14 days.

Nolan Arenado is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Nolan Arenado will have the handedness advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Nolan Arenado's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better in recent games, increasing from 17.7% on the season to 26.3% in the past week.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this season (51% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Pete Crow-Armstrong will have an advantage in today's matchup. Pete Crow-Armstrong has made significant strides with his Barrel%, improving his 8% rate last season to 14.4% this season.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Michael Busch ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Michael Busch will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Erick Fedde in today's matchup. Michael Busch has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 105-mph average in the past week to his seasonal EV of 93.5-mph. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.9°, Michael Busch has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 26° mark in the past week's worth of games.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Hitting from the opposite that Erick Fedde throws from, Reese McGuire will have an advantage in today's matchup. Reese McGuire has seen a sizeable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 95.9-mph average to last year's 89.1-mph mark. Reese McGuire's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased from last season to this one, rising from 15% to 27.6%.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Batting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Pedro Pages will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Pedro Pages will hold that advantage in today's game. In the past 14 days, Pedro Pages has significantly improved the launch angle on his hardest-hit balls: 30.8° compared to his seasonal mark of 11.9°.

Jordan Walker's BABIP ability is projected in the 82nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Jordan Walker will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Boyd in today's game. Jordan Walker hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (40.2% — 98th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Jordan Walker will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 92nd percentile as it relates to his batting average skill. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in today's game. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Alec Burleson hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.3% — 92nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards baseball's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Alec Burleson will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Yohel Pozo will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's game. Yohel Pozo will possess the home field advantage today, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Carson Kelly has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 96.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 90.5-mph average. Using Statcast metrics, Carson Kelly is in the 88th percentile for hitting ability per the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year at .359. With a .362 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Carson Kelly grades out in the 87th percentile. In terms of plate discipline, Carson Kelly's skill is quite good, sporting a 1.22 K/BB rate this year while placing in in the 95th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Masyn Winn in the 76th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Masyn Winn is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this matchup. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Masyn Winn will hold the platoon advantage over Matthew Boyd in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Masyn Winn will hold that advantage today.

Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.299) suggests that Matt Shaw has been unlucky this year with his .274 actual wOBA.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Willson Contreras ranks in the 94th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Willson Contreras is penciled in 4th in the batting order today. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Boyd throws from, Willson Contreras will have an advantage in today's matchup. Willson Contreras hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Thomas Saggese in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Hot weather is strongly correlated with more offense (and fewer whiffs), and the weather report calls for the 4th-highest temperatures of the day at 88°. Thomas Saggese will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Matthew Boyd in today's matchup. Thomas Saggese will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should bolster all of his stats. Thomas Saggese's footspeed has gotten better this season. His 27.86 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 28.52 ft/sec now.