Chicago @ St. Louis Picks & Props

Out of every team today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs. Alec Burleson's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls this year (8.7°) is a considerable dropoff from his 12.6° angle last season. When it comes to his batting average, Alec Burleson has experienced some positive variance this year. His .308 rate has been quite a bit higher than the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .253.

Nico Hoerner is penciled in 7th in the lineup today. Nico Hoerner has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) but may find it hard to clear the game's 2nd-deepest RF fences in today's game. Nico Hoerner will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's matchup. Nico Hoerner's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off in recent games; his 86.9-mph seasonal average has lowered to 83.5-mph in the past 14 days. Nico Hoerner's average launch angle on his hardest-hit balls of late (2.3° in the last two weeks) is considerably worse than his 6.3° seasonal figure.

Playing on the road typically weakens hitter stats in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Seiya Suzuki today.

Dansby Swanson will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Dansby Swanson's average exit velocity has fallen off of late; his 90-mph seasonal EV has dropped off to 83.2-mph over the past week. Dansby Swanson has displayed bad plate discipline this year, checking in at the 23rd percentile with a 3.78 K/BB rate.

Brendan Donovan has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.4%) and will be challenged by the game's 8th-deepest LF fences today. Out of every team today, the 3rd-strongest infield defense is that of the Chicago Cubs. Brendan Donovan has been lucky this year, compiling a .356 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .336 — a .020 gap.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 7th-best hitter in Major League Baseball. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Tucker usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore. In the past 7 days, Kyle Tucker's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 15.3% up to 33.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 84th percentile when assessing his overall offensive talent. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Pete Crow-Armstrong has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 8% rate last season to 14.3% this year. Over the past 7 days, Pete Crow-Armstrong's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.1-mph over the course of the season to 105.4-mph of late.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, Lars Nootbaar ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lars Nootbaar is penciled in 5th in the batting order in today's game. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Ben Brown throws from, Lars Nootbaar will have the upper hand in today's game. Lars Nootbaar hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (41.4% — 99th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting out towards the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's game.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Ian Happ ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Ian Happ is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in this matchup. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Ian Happ has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 95.9-mph average in the last week to his seasonal 88.8-mph mark. There has been a significant improvement in Ian Happ's launch angle from last season's 15° to 18.2° this season.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Ben Brown throws from, Victor Scott II will have an edge today. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Victor Scott II will hold that advantage today. Sporting a .335 BABIP this year, Victor Scott II grades out in the 83rd percentile.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage over Ben Brown in today's game. Nolan Gorman will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Pedro Pages will possess the home field advantage today, which should boost all of his stats.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Carson Kelly will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Liberatore today. Sporting a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Carson Kelly finds himself in the 86th percentile for hitting ability. By putting up a .359 wOBA (a leading indicator of offensive ability) this year, Carson Kelly has performed in the 87th percentile. Carson Kelly has displayed good plate discipline this year, grading out in the 93rd percentile with a 1.26 K/BB rate.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Willson Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today. Willson Contreras will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Masyn Winn's batting average skill is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Masyn Winn is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Masyn Winn will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. Compared to his seasonal average of 17°, Masyn Winn has significantly improved his launch angle of late, posting a 23° mark in the last two weeks' worth of games.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Matt Shaw in the 76th percentile when assessing his batting average ability. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Batting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Matt Shaw will have the upper hand in today's matchup. Compared to his seasonal average of 11.8°, Matt Shaw has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 16° figure in the last 14 days. Matt Shaw has been unlucky this year, putting up a .273 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .303 — a .030 gap.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today. Sporting a 1.48 K/BB rate this year, Nolan Arenado has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 88th percentile.

The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts). Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Justin Turner will have an edge today. Justin Turner hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 78th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 7th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup. Extreme flyball bats like Justin Turner usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore. Justin Turner's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, going from 19.1% to 28.7%.