Chicago @ St. Louis picks

The Cubs have the best offense in baseball and are a Top-10 lineup vs. lefties like Matthew Liberatore, who has looked a lot shakier of late than he did to start the season. Ben Brown has a high ceiling but is prone to the odd blow-up, and his 5.82 ERA away from Wrigley spells further doom for the righty at Busch Stadium.

Both lineups should have the edge over the starters here. Ben Brown ranks in the 29th % in xERA and the 33rd in xBA while facing a Cardinals team that may not hit for a ton of power, but they can put the bat on the ball. St. Louis ranks third in batting average and 12th in both OPS and wRC+ vs. RHP. While Matthew Liberatore ranks in the 31st percentile in xBA, the 11th in average exit velocity, and the 19th in hard-hit percentage, and has to deal with the Cubs, who have one of the best lineups in the MLB. They rank ninth in batting average, and sixth in OPS and wRC+ vs. LHP.

Seiya Suzuki faces St. Louis Cardinals starter Matthew Liberatore, who has allowed seven home runs in 14 starts. However, he’s given up four homers in his last four outings alone.

As long as sportsbooks keep giving us value when it comes to Tucker's RBI prop, we’re going to keep betting it. Tucker is the anchor of this Cubs lineup and is hitting .417 with a 1.292 OPS over his last seven games. We're getting this price because of the lefty-lefty matchup here. But Liberatore ranks in the 31st percentile in xBA, the 11th percentile in average exit velocity, and the 19th percentile in hard-hit percentile. Tucker has reverse splits and hits lefties better than righties.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Kyle Tucker ranks as the 7th-best hitter in Major League Baseball.. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Extreme flyball batters like Kyle Tucker usually hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Matthew Liberatore.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Gorman in the 97th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Nolan Gorman will hold the platoon advantage over Ben Brown in today's game.. Nolan Gorman will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Seiya Suzuki in the 97th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill.. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Seiya Suzuki will hold the platoon advantage against Matthew Liberatore in today's matchup.

Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Carson Kelly will have the handedness advantage over Matthew Liberatore today.. Sporting a .354 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) utilizing Statcast data) this year, Carson Kelly finds himself in the 86th percentile for hitting ability.. Carson Kelly has averaged 31.1 HRs per 600 plate appearances this year, placing in the 89th percentile for power.

When assessing his home run skill, Pete Crow-Armstrong ranks in the 89th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Pete Crow-Armstrong is projected to bat 5th in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Pete Crow-Armstrong has made notable improvements with his Barrel%, bettering his 8% rate last season to 14.3% this year.

Masyn Winn's batting average skill is projected to be in the 76th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Masyn Winn is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Masyn Winn will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Nolan Arenado will hold that advantage today.. Sporting a 1.48 K/BB rate this year, Nolan Arenado has demonstrated impressive plate discipline, checking in at the 88th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Dansby Swanson in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive skill.. Dansby Swanson is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Hitting from the opposite that Matthew Liberatore throws from, Dansby Swanson will have an edge in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willson Contreras in the 94th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Willson Contreras is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in today's game.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. As far as temperature and humidity are concerned, the 4th-best hitting weather on the schedule is expected for this matchup.. Willson Contreras hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.6% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 7th-shallowest CF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Alec Burleson in the 92nd percentile when assessing his batting average ability.. Alec Burleson is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup today.. Busch Stadium has the 8th-shortest average fence height among all stadiums.. The weather forecast calls for temperatures in this contest to reach the 3rd-highest level on the schedule today at 92°, which is highly linked to an increase in offense (and a reduction in strikeouts).. Batting from the opposite that Ben Brown throws from, Alec Burleson will have an advantage in today's game.