Cleveland @ Athletics Picks & Props

Sutter Health Park has the 6th-deepest left field dimensions among all parks. Low humidity has a small but significant link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-least humidity on the schedule today at 20%. Luis Ortiz will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Jacob Wilson today... and it's an even larger mismatch considering Ortiz's large platoon split. Extreme groundball bats like Jacob Wilson are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Luis Ortiz. Jacob Wilson has been cold recently, with his seasonal exit velocity of 86-mph dropping to 82.4-mph over the last week.

Low humidity has a small but significant link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-least humidity on the schedule today at 20%. Steven Kwan has a 91st percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.4%) and will be challenged by the game's 6th-deepest LF fences today. Steven Kwan will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Steven Kwan's true offensive talent to be a .310, implying that he has been very fortunate this year given the .033 difference between that mark and his actual .343 wOBA. Steven Kwan's 2.5% Barrel% (a reliable stat to evaluate power) is in the 8th percentile this year.

Sutter Health Park has the 9th-largest outfield among all parks — generally bad for homers. Low humidity has a small but significant link with less offense (and more strikeouts), and the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-least humidity on the schedule today at 20%. Jose Ramirez will be at a disadvantage playing on the road in today's game. Jose Ramirez's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off of late; his 90.5-mph seasonal average has fallen off to 86.3-mph in the past week. Compared to his seasonal mark of 20.8°, Jose Ramirez has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.3°) in the past two weeks.

JJ Bleday will hold the platoon advantage over Luis Ortiz in today's game... and moreover, Ortiz has a large platoon split. Hitters such as JJ Bleday with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Luis Ortiz who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. JJ Bleday will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which should bolster all of his stats. JJ Bleday's launch angle this season (23.6°) is significantly better than his 18.6° figure last year. JJ Bleday has been unlucky this year, putting up a .291 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .324 — a .033 deviation.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Johnathan Rodriguez in the 93rd percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Out of every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Soderstrom in the 83rd percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Tyler Soderstrom will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Luis Ortiz in today's matchup... and even better, Ortiz has a large platoon split. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and Tyler Soderstrom will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Tyler Soderstrom has had bad variance on his side thus far when it comes to his batting average this year; his .246 rate is a fair amount lower than his .264 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. With a .343 Expected wOBA (or xwOBA, an advanced metric created by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) based on Statcast data) this year, Tyler Soderstrom grades out in the 81st percentile for offensive skills.

Bo Naylor will have the handedness advantage against Mitch Spence in today's matchup. Hitters such as Bo Naylor with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mitch Spence who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Out of every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics. In the last week, Bo Naylor's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 12.4% up to 33.3%. In the last week, Bo Naylor's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 94.6-mph over the course of the season to 106.1-mph of late.

Kyle Manzardo is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Mitch Spence throws from, Kyle Manzardo will have an advantage today. Batters such as Kyle Manzardo with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Mitch Spence who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Out of every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics. Kyle Manzardo's average launch angle on his hardest-contacted balls recently (35.6° in the last two weeks) is quite a bit better than his 26.1° seasonal figure.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Lawrence Butler ranks in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Lawrence Butler is projected to bat 1st on the lineup card in this matchup. Lawrence Butler will have the handedness advantage against Luis Ortiz in today's game... and even better, Ortiz has a large platoon split. Lawrence Butler will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats. Lawrence Butler has seen a sizeable improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 98-mph average over the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 94.1-mph.

Out of every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics. Angel Martinez has made significant strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 3.3% seasonal rate to 12.5% over the last week. Angel Martinez's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has gotten better in recent games, rising from 41.2% on the season to 50% over the past week.

Lane Thomas is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today. Out of every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics. There has been a significant improvement in Lane Thomas's launch angle from last year's 16.8° to 21.5° this season. Despite posting a .195 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Lane Thomas has suffered from bad luck given the .116 deviation between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .311.

Max Muncy is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in this game. Max Muncy will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Max Muncy has made significant strides with his Barrel% lately, improving his 9.1% seasonal rate to 15.4% in the past 14 days. In the past 14 days, Max Muncy's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 93.2-mph over the course of the season to 97-mph lately.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Arias in the 82nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Out of every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics. Gabriel Arias has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, improving his 10.3% seasonal rate to 33.3% in the past 7 days. Over the last 7 days, Gabriel Arias's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 96.5-mph over the course of the season to 104.3-mph lately.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Brent Rooker ranks as the 15th-best batter in baseball. Brent Rooker is projected to bat 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. Extreme groundball bats like Brent Rooker tend to perform better against extreme flyball pitchers like Luis Ortiz. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats across the board, and Brent Rooker will hold that advantage in today's game. Brent Rooker has made notable strides with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 13.6% seasonal rate to 21.6% in the last two weeks.

Luis Urias will benefit from the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Luis Urias has seen a big gain in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 95.5-mph average over the last two weeks to his seasonal mark of 91.7-mph. In the last week, Luis Urias's 31.3% rate of hitting balls at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 10.3%. Sporting a 1.23 K/BB rate this year, Luis Urias has displayed strong plate discipline, placing in the 94th percentile.

Daniel Schneemann is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. Daniel Schneemann will have the handedness advantage over Mitch Spence in today's game. Out of every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics. Daniel Schneemann has seen a substantial gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last year's 90.5-mph mark.

Carlos Santana is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Out of every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics. Carlos Santana has been hot of late, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 89.2-mph to 92.9-mph in the last two weeks' worth of games. Carlos Santana has displayed impressive plate discipline this year, ranking in the 86th percentile with a 1.53 K/BB rate.

Nicholas Kurtz has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (89% of the time), but he is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in this matchup. Nicholas Kurtz will have the handedness advantage against Luis Ortiz in today's game... and even better, Ortiz has a large platoon split. Nicholas Kurtz will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. Nicholas Kurtz has hit one of the hardest balls in the game in the past 7 days — 111.7-mph — which is a strong measure of recent form and raw power. This year, Nicholas Kurtz's flyball exit velocity (a reliable stat to measure power) ranks in the 94th percentile at 96.5 mph.

Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Willie MacIver will hold that advantage today. Willie MacIver has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity on flyballs in recent games; just compare his 86.6-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal figure of 83.5-mph.

Austin Wynns will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. Over the last week, Austin Wynns's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 95.5-mph over the course of the season to 106.1-mph in recent games. Austin Wynns's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, increasing from 58.5% on the season to 66.7% over the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nolan Jones in the 88th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Nolan Jones will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mitch Spence in today's game. Out of every team today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Athletics. Nolan Jones's average exit velocity has risen significantly from last season to this one, averaging 92.1-mph now compared to just 88.3-mph then. When it comes to his wOBA and overall offense, Nolan Jones has had some very poor luck this year. His .279 mark falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .313.

When assessing his BABIP talent, Denzel Clarke is projected as the 13th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X). Home field advantage generally improves hitter stats in all categories, and Denzel Clarke will hold that advantage today. Denzel Clarke has been honed in on the ideal launch angle for home runs of late, angling balls between 23° and 34° 33.3% of the time over the last week. Despite posting a .216 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Denzel Clarke has suffered from bad luck given the .065 disparity between that mark and his estimated true talent wOBA of .281.