Philadelphia @ Miami picks

I don’t think these moneyline odds fully reflect how well Phillies lefty Cristopher Sanchez has pitched over the past three years. His 3.29 ERA is 12th best among qualified starters, while his 3.15 xFIP is fourth. Philadelphia also sends a solid lineup to the dish against right-handed arms with a ninth-ranked wOBA and the sixth-lowest strikeout percentage. I expect the Phillies to put runs on the board against Miami starter Edward Cabrera.

Cristopher Sanchez has given up two or fewer runs in five straight and in 11 of his last 12 starts. The Marlins have been average at best at the plate, and plus-money on a good hitting team behind an elite pitcher is something I can't pass up. 

Trea Turner will be loving this matchup. The Fish send Edward Cabrera to the hill, and Turner is 3-for-7 lifetime against him with a double. Six of Turner’s home runs are off righties, and all nine of his bombs are on the road. 

Alec Bohm has served up 16 hits across his past nine contests and the stage is set for more fireworks. He’s been a dominant force on the road, too, with his average climbing to .303 away from Citizens Bank Park.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the majors's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Kyle Schwarber will hold the platoon advantage over Edward Cabrera in today's matchup.. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Schwarber stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.. In the past 7 days, Kyle Schwarber's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 99.5-mph over the course of the season to 106.3-mph of late.

When estimating his overall offensive talent, Max Kepler ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Max Kepler has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (75% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Max Kepler will have the handedness advantage over Edward Cabrera today.. Max Kepler is apt to have the upper hand against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Miami Marlins only has 1 same-handed RP.. Max Kepler has made significant gains with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 14.5% seasonal rate to 26.1% in the last two weeks.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 88th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive talent.. Among every team in action today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Jesus Sanchez will hold that advantage today.. Jesus Sanchez has made big gains with his Barrel% lately, bettering his 10.9% seasonal rate to 20% over the past 7 days.. Jesus Sanchez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 105.9-mph average in the last 7 days to his seasonal figure of 95.6-mph.

Brandon Marsh is penciled in 9th in the batting order in today's game.. When starting against a northpaw this year, Brandon Marsh has been pulled from the game early 20% of the time.. LoanDepot Park projects as the #25 stadium in the majors for left-handed home runs, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Built just 6 feet above sea level, LoanDepot Park has one of the lowest elevations among all major league parks, which generally leads to less offense.. The LoanDepot Park roof projects to be closed today, making weather conditions in this match-up -6° colder than the average outdoor game on the schedule today — favorable for pitching.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Kyle Schwarber as the majors's 3rd-best home run batter.. Kyle Schwarber is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Kyle Schwarber will hold the platoon advantage over Edward Cabrera in today's matchup.. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Schwarber stands a good chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.. In the past 7 days, Kyle Schwarber's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 99.5-mph over the course of the season to 106.3-mph of late.

Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Nick Fortes will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Among all the teams in action today, the weakest infield defense is that of the Philadelphia Phillies.. Nick Fortes will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to boost all of his stats.

Agustin Ramirez is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. Hitting from the opposite that Cristopher Sanchez throws from, Agustin Ramirez will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Among every team in action today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Agustin Ramirez will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to bolster all of his stats.. Agustin Ramirez has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity recently; just compare his 93.1-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 91.1-mph EV.

Eric Wagaman is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.. Eric Wagaman will hold the platoon advantage against Cristopher Sanchez today.. Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences today.. Among every team in action today, the weakest outfield defense belongs to the Philadelphia Phillies.. Eric Wagaman will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to boost all of his stats.