Colorado @ Washington picks

This is the third pitcher I’m targeting that is coming off a season-high in pitches. Mike Soroka has thrown just 167 innings since 2020. He has battled injuries and is not a guy who will go out there every game and throw 100 pitches. He just threw 102 balls five days ago when his previous starts went for 85, 94, 91, 82, 81, 78, and 83 pitches. He does face the Rockies so there is some worry here, but efficiency should be down and the leash shorter. Additionally, Kevin Roth is saying that a delay is very possible at any moment in this game. His Over 1.5 walks at plus money is another good look but the rain could shorten his outing and there is no need to push him and he is pitching to a 5.14 ERA to boot.  The Rockies have been looking better of late and also aren’t striking out at the highest rate in baseball over the last 14 days.

Nationals Park projects as the #26 field in the majors for base hits, per the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Nationals Park's elevation is near sea-level, one of the lowest in MLB, which often leads to worse offense.. Given that groundball pitchers have a substantial edge over groundball bats, Antonio Senzatela and his 46.5% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a favorable position in this outing facing 5 opposing GB bats.. Antonio Senzatela was rolling in his last game started and allowed 0 ER.. Antonio Senzatela has been unlucky this year, putting up a 7.23 ERA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT) estimating his true talent level to be 5.15 — a 2.08 discrepancy.

The 9th-shallowest right field dimensions in the majors are found in Nationals Park.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-highest humidity of all games today at 80%.. Sam Hilliard will hold the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka today.. The Washington Nationals have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Sam Hilliard can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. Since the start of last season, Sam Hilliard has an average exit velocity of 94.6 mph, which ranks among the best in MLB at the 99th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan Ritter in the 78th percentile when it comes to his BABIP ability.. Nationals Park has the 6th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 3rd-highest humidity of all games today at 77%.. The Washington Nationals outfield defense grades out as the 5th-worst out of all the teams today.

When estimating his home run ability, Ryan McMahon ranks in the 85th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan McMahon is projected to hit 4th in the lineup today.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-highest humidity of all games today at 80%.. Ryan McMahon will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Mike Soroka in today's matchup.. Ryan McMahon is apt to have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Washington Nationals has just 1 same-handed RP.

It may be wise to expect better results for the Colorado Rockies offense going forward, given that the leading projection system (THE BAT X) views them as the unluckiest offense in the majors this year.. It is likely that we will see a Hitters Umpire (Stu Scheurwater) behind the plate in this game.. According to the leading projection system (THE BAT), Keibert Ruiz (the Nationals's expected catcher today) profiles as a weak pitch framer.. Nationals Park has the 6th-shallowest LF fences among all stadiums.. Humid weather has a small yet noteworthy correlation with more offense (and fewer strikeouts), and the weather forecast predicts the 5th-highest humidity of all games today at 80%.