Philadelphia @ Miami picks
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PHI vs MIA Picks
MLB Picks
MoneyLine

Ryan Gilbert
Betting Analyst
Sure, Sandy Alcantara has looked more like himself in his last two starts, with two earned runs in 12 innings, but that was against the Rockies and Pirates. Even without Bryce Harper, this Phillies lineup is a step above those two. The Phillies lit up Alcantara for six runs on four hits in two innings back on April 18, and the former Cy Young winner is still 3-7 with a 7.14 ERA and 1.49 WHIP on the season.
Total Home Runs


Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
Realmuto is 11-for-36 lifetime against Alcantara with a pair of homers. All five of the catcher's dingers have come off right-handed hurlers, and Alcantara will be the latest victim tonight.
Total RBIs

Kyle Schwarber o0.5 Total RBIs (+145)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The weather report expects the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage against Sandy Alcantara today.. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Schwarber stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
Total RBIs

Eric Wagaman o0.5 Total RBIs (+210)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The weather report expects the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Eric Wagaman hits many of his flyballs to center field (40.3% — 98th percentile) and will have a big advantage facing the game's 6th-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.. The Philadelphia Phillies outfield defense profiles as the 14th-best among all the teams playing today.. Eric Wagaman will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to improve all of his stats.. Eric Wagaman has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 91.1-mph to 96.2-mph over the last 7 days.
Total RBIs

Max Kepler o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Max Kepler is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The weather report expects the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage over Sandy Alcantara today.. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. In the past 7 days, Max Kepler's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.1% up to 30.8%.
Total RBIs

Kyle Stowers o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
When it comes to his home run ability, Kyle Stowers ranks in the 90th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Stowers is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The weather report expects the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Kyle Stowers will have the handedness advantage over Mick Abel today.. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 13th-best among every team in action today.
Total RBIs

Connor Norby o0.5 Total RBIs (+200)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Connor Norby's BABIP skill is projected in the 96th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. LoanDepot Park has the 2nd-shallowest CF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. The weather report expects the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. The Philadelphia Phillies infield defense grades out as the 13th-best among every team in action today.. Connor Norby will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.
Total Bases

Kyle Stowers u1.5 Total Bases (-180)
Projection 0.8 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The #5 field in baseball for suppressing home runs to left-handed batters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is LoanDepot Park.. LoanDepot Park has the 4th-deepest RF dimensions in the league.. LoanDepot Park's altitude is near sea-level, one of the lowest in the league, which usually leads (as a rule of thumb) to worse offense.. In the last 7 days, Kyle Stowers's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 18.9% down to 0%.. Over the last week, Kyle Stowers's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 16.5%.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Kyle Schwarber o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-115)
Projection 2.3 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kyle Schwarber projects as the 3rd-best home run batter in MLB, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Schwarber is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The weather report expects the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Kyle Schwarber will have the handedness advantage against Sandy Alcantara today.. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Kyle Schwarber stands a good chance of never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.
Total Bases

Jesus Sanchez o1.5 Total Bases (+125)
Projection 1.8 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The weather report expects the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Batting from the opposite that Mick Abel throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an advantage today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Jesus Sanchez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mick Abel.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Jesus Sanchez o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-140)
Projection 2.4 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jesus Sanchez in the 88th percentile when estimating his overall offensive skill.. Jesus Sanchez is projected to bat 2nd in the batting order in today's game.. The weather report expects the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Batting from the opposite that Mick Abel throws from, Jesus Sanchez will have an advantage today.. Extreme flyball hitters like Jesus Sanchez are generally more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Mick Abel.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Max Kepler o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-105)
Projection 2 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Max Kepler is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in this game, which would be an upgrade from his 77% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this year.. The weather report expects the 5th-best hitting weather of all games on the slate today, as it relates to temperature and humidity.. Max Kepler will hold the platoon advantage over Sandy Alcantara today.. The Miami Marlins have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Max Kepler can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game.. In the past 7 days, Max Kepler's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 14.1% up to 30.8%.