New York @ Boston picks

Brayan Bello is not much of a strikeout pitcher. He has just 37 punchouts through 52 innings of work this season, equating to 3.55 per five innings pitched. He's also averaging fewer than 16 outs per start. Put another way, he’s right on the line of five innings per start. Bello has lasted five innings or less in 60% of his starts. Of the four teams he managed to last longer against, none ranked in the Top 10 in on-base percentage.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.. Rafael Devers has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

Aaron Judge projects as the best batter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Aaron Judge is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Aaron Judge hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (38.5% — 80th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.. Batters such as Aaron Judge with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brayan Bello who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

When it comes to his home run ability, Trent Grisham ranks in the 96th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Trent Grisham is projected to bat 1st in the lineup in today's game.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Trent Grisham will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game.. Trent Grisham pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.9% — 79th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

When estimating his home run skill, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

When assessing his overall offensive talent, Ben Rice ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Ben Rice is penciled in 2nd in the lineup today.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Considering Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Ben Rice will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup.. Ben Rice pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.4% — 90th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup.

Rob Refsnyder's BABIP ability is projected in the 92nd percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rob Refsnyder is projected to bat 1st in the batting order in this game.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Fenway Park has the shallowest LF dimensions in Major League Baseball.. Rob Refsnyder will have the handedness advantage against Max Fried in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Austin Wells in the 84th percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest right field fences in MLB.. Given Brayan Bello's large platoon split, Austin Wells will have a colossal advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today.. Extreme groundball hitters like Austin Wells are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Brayan Bello.

When estimating his home run skill, Jazz Chisholm Jr. ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. is projected to bat 5th on the lineup card in this matchup.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Jazz Chisholm Jr. will have the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brayan Bello in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Bello has a large platoon split.. Jazz Chisholm Jr. pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (35.1% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.

Rafael Devers projects as the 16th-best hitter in Major League Baseball, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to bat 2nd in the lineup today.. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Rafael Devers has a strong chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game.. Rafael Devers has an 83rd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.6%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of baseball's shallowest LF fences today.

As it relates to his BABIP ability, Jarren Duran is projected as the 13th-best hitter in the game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Fenway Park profiles as the #3 stadium in the majors for run-scoring, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The New York Yankees have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Jarren Duran has a strong chance of never losing the platoon advantage against the 'pen all game.. Jarren Duran has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards baseball's shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Jarren Duran will hold the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.