Minnesota @ Houston picks

I will take almost any walk prop — Over or Under — at +140 or better. However, I do like this one more than most today. Chris Paddack is making a road start which is always nice as home mounds have a familiarity and comfort factor to them. The Minnesota starter has 22 walks over 71 innings this year so he is anything from elite in terms of BB%. He’s hit this Over vs. Houston already this year, is 7-6 to the Over on the prop across 13 starts, and threw 110 pitches two starts ago so he does have a leash. This market has a high variance and the best way to deal with those types of markets is to hit big plus-money plays.

Taking into account both his underlying tendencies and the matchup, Colton Gordon is projected to throw 80 pitches in today's game by the leading projection system (THE BAT X) system, which is the 5th-least of all pitchers on the slate today.. Yainer Diaz, the Astros's expected catcher in today's matchup, projects as a weak pitch framer according to the leading projection system (THE BAT).. With 8 batters who hit from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Colton Gordon will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances today.. Colton Gordon's 90.5-mph fastball velocity this year ranks in the 15th percentile out of all SPs.. Colton Gordon's 2045-rpm fastball spin rate this year ranks in the 7th percentile out of all SPs.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Royce Lewis in the 81st percentile when assessing his home run ability.. Royce Lewis is penciled in 5th on the lineup card in today's game.. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Royce Lewis will have the handedness advantage against Colton Gordon in today's game.. Royce Lewis pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.6% — 91st percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Willi Castro in the 79th percentile when assessing his BABIP skill.. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Willi Castro pulls many of his flyballs (34.1% — 82nd percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. Willi Castro's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved in recent games, rising from 47.7% on the season to 61.9% over the past 14 days.. Placing in the 86th percentile, Willi Castro sports a .358 wOBA (widely regarded as the top measure of overall offense) this year.

When it comes to his home run talent, Ryan Jeffers ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan Jeffers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. In the league, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. Ryan Jeffers will have the handedness advantage against Colton Gordon in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Christian Walker in the 94th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Christian Walker is penciled in 4th on the lineup card in this matchup.. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Christian Walker pulls many of his flyballs (35.2% — 89th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the worst among every team on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jose Altuve in the 89th percentile as it relates to his batting average skill.. Jose Altuve is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card today.. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. Jose Altuve pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (40.9% — 99th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 2nd-shallowest LF fences today.. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the worst among every team on the slate today.

Jake Meyers's batting average skill is projected to be in the 82nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jake Meyers has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (92% of the time), but he is projected to bat 5th in the batting order today.. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the worst among every team on the slate today.. Jake Meyers will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to improve all of his stats.

Victor Caratini is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today.. Minute Maid Park grades out as the #8 ballpark in the game for overall lefty offense, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. Extreme groundball hitters like Victor Caratini are generally more successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Chris Paddack.. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the worst among every team on the slate today.. Victor Caratini will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Carlos Correa's batting average ability is projected to be in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Carlos Correa is penciled in 3rd in the lineup today.. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. In the league, Minute Maid Park's LF dimensions are the 2nd-shallowest.. Batting from the opposite that Colton Gordon throws from, Carlos Correa will have an edge in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yainer Diaz in the 97th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent.. Yainer Diaz is projected to bat 3rd on the lineup card in today's game.. The #8 ballpark in the majors for boosting offensive stats to right-handed hitters, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Minute Maid Park.. The Minnesota Twins infield defense projects as the worst among every team on the slate today.. Home field advantage generally boosts hitter stats across the board, and Yainer Diaz will hold that advantage in today's matchup.