Pittsburgh @ Chicago picks

Cubs starter Jameson Taillon has won four straight with a tidy 1.69 ERA and 0.75 WHIP, and the Pirates check out as a favorable matchup with a 27th-ranked wOBA and dead-last ISO against right-handed pitchers. The Cubs have also had their way with southpaws, so I’m anticipating Pirates lefty Andrew Heaney to have hiccups Thursday night. Chicago sports a seventh-ranked wOBA and fourth-ranked ISO against left-handed pitchers this season, and the Cubbies are also 20-11 with an average of 5.2 runs per home game, after all. The Pirates, meanwhile, are just 9-22 on the highway with an average of 2.9 runs per game.

Somehow, we are still getting huge numbers for Tucker to get an RBI. This one has to be due to the perceived splits edge for Heaney. But not only is Heaney do for a regression with a 4.70 xERA, but he and Tucker have reverse splits with lefties doing the most damage against him.

As it relates to his overall offensive ability, Andrew McCutchen ranks in the 86th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X).. Andrew McCutchen is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all parks, which generally leads to better offense.. Andrew McCutchen pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.1% — 81st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences today.. Andrew McCutchen has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 95.6-mph average to last season's 93-mph figure.

Kyle Tucker projects as the 7th-best batter in the majors, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Kyle Tucker is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all parks, which generally leads to better offense.. Among every team playing today, the 13th-best infield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.. Kyle Tucker is an extreme flyball hitter and faces the weak outfield defense of Pittsburgh (#1-worst of all teams on the slate today).

Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand in today's game.. Oneil Cruz has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 15.7% rate last year to 24.6% this year.. Oneil Cruz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 97.5-mph average to last season's 95.3-mph average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Bryan Reynolds in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP ability.. Bryan Reynolds is penciled in 3rd in the batting order in this game.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all parks, which generally leads to better offense.. As a switch-hitter who bats better from the 0 side of the plate, Bryan Reynolds will have the advantage of batting from from his good side against Jameson Taillon in today's matchup.. Bryan Reynolds has a 75th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.5%) and has the good fortune of hitting them in the direction of the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.

Wrigley Field has the 5th-shallowest left field fences among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Heaney throws from, Carson Kelly will have an edge in today's matchup.. Among every team playing today, the 13th-best infield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Carson Kelly will hold that advantage today.. This season, Carson Kelly has experienced a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 95.5 mph compared to last year's 91.4 mph mark.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pete Crow-Armstrong in the 88th percentile when estimating his home run talent.. Pete Crow-Armstrong has primarily hit in the back-half of the batting order this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this matchup.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all parks, which generally leads to better offense.. Among every team playing today, the 13th-best infield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Pete Crow-Armstrong will hold that advantage in today's matchup.

Seiya Suzuki projects as the 19th-best batter in Major League Baseball, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Seiya Suzuki is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Wrigley Field has the 5th-shallowest left field fences among all major league parks.. Hitting from the opposite that Andrew Heaney throws from, Seiya Suzuki will have the upper hand in today's game.. Among every team playing today, the 13th-best infield defense belongs to the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Oneil Cruz projects as the 6th-best home run hitter in the game, via the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Oneil Cruz is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in this game.. Batting from the opposite that Jameson Taillon throws from, Oneil Cruz will have the upper hand in today's game.. Oneil Cruz has made sizeable gains with his Barrel%, upping his 15.7% rate last year to 24.6% this year.. Oneil Cruz has seen a significant gain in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 97.5-mph average to last season's 95.3-mph average.

Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all parks, which generally leads to better offense.. Henry Davis pulls a lot of his flyballs (35.9% — 91st percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards the game's 6th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.. Henry Davis has made sizeable improvements with his Barrel% of late, bettering his 10.2% seasonal rate to 20% in the past week's worth of games.. Over the past 14 days, Henry Davis's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 90.9-mph over the course of the season to 95.2-mph of late.. Henry Davis's launch angle in recent games (31.6° over the past two weeks) is quite a bit higher than his 26.6° seasonal figure.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jared Triolo in the 77th percentile when assessing his BABIP ability.. Built 599 feet above sea level, Wrigley Field has the 10th-highest altitude among all parks, which generally leads to better offense.. Over the past 7 days, Jared Triolo's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 19.8%.. In terms of his batting average, Jared Triolo has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .210 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .236.