Tampa Bay @ Boston picks

Brandon Lowe gets a good shot at improving his numbers tonight as the Rays head into Fenway Park to take on the Boston Red Sox. Not only is Lowe batting in an excellent hitter’s park, but he’ll be facing righty Walker Buehler, who has allowed 12 runs over 7 2/3 innings in his last two starts, raising his ERA to 5.18.

There’s a bit of a discount here with Walker Buehler after he got banged up vs. the Yankees in his last start and went just 67 pitches and six outs. However, in his start before that, he threw 106 pitches. That’s a long leash for a low out total at home vs. a Tampa Bay Rays offense that hits better at home in better conditions. Before Buehler was tossed from the game on May 20 for arguing balls and strikes, he had gone over this number in three of four starts and touched 100 pitches in one of those games. His home ERA is more than four points shorter and he's allowed just 19 hits over 25+ home innings vs. 34 hits across 23 road innings. At even money and a decent leash, this is a good spot to buy low on the Boston Red Sox starter with your MLB picks. 

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Yandy Diaz as the 14th-best hitter in the majors as it relates to his batting average ability.. Yandy Diaz is projected to hit 3rd in the lineup in today's game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in MLB for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Yandy Diaz has a 99th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (42.5%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in MLB for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today.. Ceddanne Rafaela will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

Rafael Devers projects as the 15th-best hitter in MLB, according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Rafael Devers is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in MLB for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Zack Littell throws from, Rafael Devers will have an advantage in today's game.

Tallying 91.9 adjusted pitches per game per started this year on average, Walker Buehler places in the 75th percentile.. The league's 2nd-highest fence height (on average) can be found at Fenway Park.. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams playing today.. Because flyball pitchers have a big edge over flyball hitters, Walker Buehler and his 43.7% underlying FB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a good position in today's game facing 3 opposing FB hitters.. Walker Buehler will possess the home field advantage in today's matchup, which ought to bolster all of his metrics in all categories.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 89th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) ranks Fenway Park as the 3rd-best stadium in MLB for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's game.