Tampa Bay @ Boston Picks & Props

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Batting from the same side that Walker Buehler throws from, Junior Caminero will have a tough challenge in today's game. Extreme groundball hitters like Junior Caminero are generally less successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Walker Buehler. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams playing today. Playing on the road generally reduces hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Junior Caminero in today's matchup.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Hitting from the same side that Walker Buehler throws from, Yandy Diaz will have a tough matchup in today's game. Extreme flyball hitters like Yandy Diaz generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Walker Buehler. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams playing today. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Yandy Diaz today.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. Over the past 7 days, Jarren Duran's Barrel% has experienced a negative regression, plummeting from his seasonal rate of 8.1% down to 0%. Jarren Duran has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs recently; just compare his 97.7-mph average in the last week's worth of games to his seasonal EV of 93.2-mph. Jarren Duran's launch angle lately (-10.5° in the past week's worth of games) is a considerable dropoff from his 10.5° seasonal figure. When it comes to plate discipline, Jarren Duran's ability is quite weak, putting up a 3.76 K/BB rate this year while ranking in in the 22nd percentile.

Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. In the last 7 days, Rafael Devers's 28.6% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 45.7%. Based on Statcast data, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.366) implies that Rafael Devers has been very fortunate this year with his .392 actual wOBA.

Jake Mangum is penciled in 6th in the lineup in this game. Built just 16 feet above sea level, Fenway Park has one of the lowest altitudes among all major league stadiums, which tends to lead to lower offensive output. As a switch-hitter who bats worse from the 0 side of the dish, Jake Mangum will be at a disadvantage batting from his weak side against Walker Buehler in this game. Extreme flyball batters like Jake Mangum generally hit worse against extreme flyball pitchers like Walker Buehler. The Boston Red Sox infield defense grades out as the 3rd-strongest among all the teams playing today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Kristian Campbell in the 94th percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Kristian Campbell has an 89th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today. Hitters such as Kristian Campbell with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Zack Littell who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Batting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Matt Thaiss will have an edge in today's game. Matt Thaiss hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.4% — 93rd percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game. Matt Thaiss's footspeed has improved this year. His 24.85 ft/sec Statcast Sprint Speed last year sits at 25.46 ft/sec now.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Taylor Walls has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.1%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them in the direction of MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Over the past week, Taylor Walls's exit velocity on flyballs has seen a big rise, from 88.1-mph over the course of the season to 94.5-mph in recent games. In the last 14 days, Taylor Walls has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 25.3° compared to his seasonal mark of 10.3°.

Abraham Toro has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (76% of the time), but he is projected to hit 3rd in the batting order in this matchup. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Abraham Toro pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.4% — 76th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Abraham Toro will hold that advantage today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Roman Anthony in the 81st percentile as it relates to his BABIP talent. Roman Anthony is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card in today's game. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all stadiums. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Danny Jansen pulls a lot of his flyballs (42.8% — 100th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Batters such as Danny Jansen with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Walker Buehler who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Danny Jansen has made significant improvements with his Barrel% in recent games, upping his 6.2% seasonal rate to 25% in the past week.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Trevor Story in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Trevor Story hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.9% — 96th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Trevor Story will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which should improve all of his stats.

Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Jose Caballero pulls many of his flyballs (38.9% — 97th percentile) and will have a big advantage hitting them towards MLB's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Jose Caballero's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last season to this one, increasing from 43.9% to 52.6%. By putting up a .315 BABIP since the start of last season, Jose Caballero finds himself in the 78th percentile.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brandon Lowe in the 86th percentile when assessing his overall offensive skill. Brandon Lowe is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this game. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Batting from the opposite that Walker Buehler throws from, Brandon Lowe will have the upper hand in today's game.

When it comes to his overall offensive talent, Jonathan Aranda ranks in the 87th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jonathan Aranda is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in this game. The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all stadiums. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. Fenway Park has the 3rd-shallowest RF fences among all stadiums. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Marcelo Mayer will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Zack Littell in today's matchup. Marcelo Mayer will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ceddanne Rafaela in the 75th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Ceddanne Rafaela hits many of his flyballs to center field (38.7% — 84th percentile) and is fortunate to face the league's 3rd-shallowest CF fences today. Ceddanne Rafaela will benefit from the home field advantage today, which ought to improve all of his stats.

The #4 park in the game for boosting batting average to lefties, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park. The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Kameron Misner will hold the platoon advantage against Walker Buehler today. Kameron Misner has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the game's shallowest LF fences today.

Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 4th in the lineup in this matchup, which would be an upgrade from his 74% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the lineup this year. Fenway Park projects as the #4 stadium in baseball for righty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT). The wind projects to be blowing out to CF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 2nd-most-favorable of the day for hitters. Carlos Narvaez has a 79th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. Carlos Narvaez will possess the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats.

Josh Lowe has gone over 1.5 in 0 of his last 10 games.