Seattle @ Arizona Picks & Props

Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the least humidity of all games today at 19%. In the last two weeks, Corbin Carroll's 26.9% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 38.5%. Despite posting a .382 wOBA this year, the leading projection system (THE BAT X) believes Corbin Carroll has been lucky given the .024 disparity between that figure and his estimated true talent wOBA of .358.

Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s batting average talent is projected to be in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X). The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among every team in action today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Compared to last year, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 43.9% to 49.5% this season. Over the past week, Lourdes Gurriel Jr.'s 56.3% rate of hitting balls at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 49.5%.

Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the least humidity of all games today at 19%. Brandon Pfaadt will have the handedness advantage against Julio Rodriguez today. Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks. Playing on the road generally diminishes hitter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Julio Rodriguez today. Julio Rodriguez's exit velocity on flyballs has declined lately; his 94-mph seasonal EV has dropped to 80.5-mph in the last week.

Dry weather has a small but significant link with less offense (and more whiffs), and the weather report forecasts the least humidity of all games today at 19%. Today, J.P. Crawford is at a disadvantage facing the league's 3rd-deepest CF center field fences given that he hits his flyballs towards center field at a 38.8% rate (86th percentile). Out of every team playing today, the 2nd-strongest infield defense is that of the the Arizona Diamondbacks. J.P. Crawford will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. J.P. Crawford's exit velocity on flyballs has dropped off recently; his 90.3-mph seasonal average has lowered to 84.3-mph in the last 14 days.

The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among every team in action today. Home field advantage typically improves batter metrics across the board, and Jose Herrera will hold that advantage in today's game. Jose Herrera has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity in recent games; just compare his 83.1-mph average over the last week to his seasonal 80.9-mph figure.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 93rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is penciled in 5th in the batting order in this matchup. Randy Arozarena has seen a notable increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.4-mph average to last season's 90.4-mph mark. Randy Arozarena has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 92.4-mph to 94.6-mph over the last 7 days. Randy Arozarena's average launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls of late (24° in the last two weeks' worth of games) is quite a bit better than his 12.1° seasonal figure.

Geraldo Perdomo is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card in this game. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among every team in action today. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter metrics in all categories, and Geraldo Perdomo will hold that advantage today. Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 13% to 20.1%. Geraldo Perdomo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has increased lately, increasing from 20.1% on the season to 29.7% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Ketel Marte ranks as the 9th-best batter in the game. Ketel Marte is projected to hit 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among every team in action today. Ketel Marte will benefit from the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats. In the past week's worth of games, Ketel Marte's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.5% up to 31.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Eugenio Suarez in the 87th percentile when assessing his overall offensive ability. Eugenio Suarez is projected to hit 5th on the lineup card today. Typically, hitters like Eugenio Suarez who hit a lot of flyballs are generally less successful when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of flyballs such as Bryan Woo. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among every team in action today. Eugenio Suarez will hold the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should improve all of his stats.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Gabriel Moreno in the 94th percentile when it comes to his batting average talent. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among every team in action today. Home field advantage typically improves hitter metrics in all categories, and Gabriel Moreno will hold that advantage today. This season, Gabriel Moreno has experienced a significant gain in his exit velocity on flyballs, now sitting at an average of 92.9 mph compared to last year's 89.6 mph mark. Gabriel Moreno's ability to hit the ball at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last season to this one, rising from 13.3% to 17.3%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Williamson in the 94th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. Bats such as Benjamin Williamson with extreme groundball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt who skew towards the flyball end of the spectrum. Benjamin Williamson has seen a sizeable gain in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 90.9-mph average in the last two weeks' worth of games to his seasonal 88.1-mph mark.

Batting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Miles Mastrobuoni will have the upper hand in today's game. Miles Mastrobuoni has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 91.7-mph average to last season's 88.8-mph mark. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected wOBA (.331) suggests that Miles Mastrobuoni has had bad variance on his side this year with his .287 actual wOBA. Launch angles in the range of -4° to 26° tend to become base hits at a high rate; Miles Mastrobuoni and his 46.3% since the start of last season rank in the 81st percentile by this measure. Miles Mastrobuoni has displayed good plate discipline since the start of last season, placing in the 87th percentile with a 1.75 K/BB rate.

Cole Young will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Pfaadt in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Polanco in the 76th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Jorge Polanco is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card today. Jorge Polanco has been unlucky in regards to his batting average this year; his .259 rate is considerably lower than his .285 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data. Jorge Polanco has recorded a .346 Expected wOBA (xwOBA) this year, grading out in the 83rd percentile for offensive skills according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cal Raleigh in the 95th percentile when estimating his overall offensive ability. Cal Raleigh is penciled in 3rd on the lineup card in this matchup. The Barrel% of Cal Raleigh has significantly improved, with an increase from 15.5% last year to 22.1% this season. Cal Raleigh has made notable gains with his Barrel% lately, improving his 22.1% seasonal rate to 27.6% in the past 14 days. There has been a significant improvement in Cal Raleigh's launch angle from last year's 21° to 24.1° this year.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Pavin Smith in the 79th percentile when estimating his overall offensive talent. Because of Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Pavin Smith will have a huge advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish in today's game. Pavin Smith will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the whole game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among every team in action today. Home field advantage typically bolsters hitter stats across the board, and Pavin Smith will hold that advantage today.

Alek Thomas will hold the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo today... and the cherry on top, Woo has a large platoon split. Alek Thomas may have an edge against every reliever from start to finish, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners has just 1 same-handed RP. The Seattle Mariners infield defense grades out as the 4th-weakest among every team in action today. Alek Thomas will have the benefit of the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats. Over the last 7 days, Alek Thomas's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 9.1% up to 23.1%.

Hitting from the opposite that Brandon Pfaadt throws from, Rowdy Tellez will have an edge today. Rowdy Tellez has made substantial gains with his Barrel%, upping his 8.1% rate last season to 16.1% this season. Over the past week, Rowdy Tellez's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 16.1% up to 21.4%. Rowdy Tellez has been hot in recent games, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.6-mph to 98.8-mph in the last 7 days. Rowdy Tellez has experienced some negative variance in regards to his batting average this year; his .204 mark is considerably lower than his .255 Expected Batting Average, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.