Brandon Nimmo o0.5 Total Home Runs (+400)
I’ll finish off my picks with Soto’s teammate. Brandon Nimmo is also struggling offensively, but he has quite the track record against Senzatela. The veteran is 4 for 11 in his career with three long balls. Nimmo also left the ballpark on Thursday against the Dodgers, his 10th of the campaign. Nimmo has two bombs in his last six appearances, and he’s also a lot better against righties. Eight of his homers are with right-handed pitchers on the mound. The Mets are in Denver for this series, and the elevation will help. Also, Nimmo has done most of his damage from a power standpoint on the road. He has just two long balls at Citi Field and eight away from home. A second straight game with a bomb is very much possible tonight for Nimmo.
Juan Soto o0.5 Total Home Runs (+340)
The Juan Soto shuffle is back, so that’s how you know the New York Mets superstar is starting to find his confidence again. There’s no question it’s been a very slow start for the $765 million man, but he’s putting together quality at-bats lately, and the results are finally showing up. Soto has two long balls in his last five games and even had a five-game hitting streak before going hitless across his previous two appearances. That being said, he’ll face Colorado Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela, who has a terrible 7.14 ERA. He’s getting hit around every single time he steps on the hill. Soto is 2 for 4 lifetime against Senzatela, and both hits were bombs. Although his average is better against lefties, Soto’s power has shown up versus right-handers, with nine homers. It wouldn’t surprise me if he continued to terrorize Senzatela tonight.
Keston Hiura will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Brenton Doyle in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP talent. Brenton Doyle is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Brenton Doyle will hold that advantage in today's game. Brenton Doyle has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.7-mph figure. Brenton Doyle has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .259 figure is quite a bit lower than his .313 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of all games today. Hitting from the same side that Antonio Senzatela throws from, Pete Alonso will have a tough challenge in today's matchup. Playing on the road typically weakens hitter metrics in all categories due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Pete Alonso in today's matchup. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Pete Alonso's true offensive ability to be a .365, indicating that he has been very fortunate this year given the .036 gap between that mark and his actual .401 wOBA.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jeff McNeil in the 17th percentile when it comes to his BABIP skill. 16% of the time that Jeff McNeil has started against a right-handed pitcher this year, he has been replaced by a pinch-hitter. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of all games today. Jeff McNeil will be at a disadvantage playing as a visiting player in today's matchup. Jeff McNeil has been lucky this year, notching a .341 wOBA despite the leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimating his true talent level to be .303 — a .038 disparity.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Tyler Freeman in the 91st percentile when estimating his batting average ability. Home field advantage typically boosts hitter stats in all categories, and Tyler Freeman will hold that advantage today. Tyler Freeman has seen a substantial increase in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 90.4-mph average to last season's 87.7-mph EV. Compared to last season, Tyler Freeman has improved his ability to hit the ball at a launch angle ideal for base hits, increasing his percentage of balls hit between -4° and 26° from 40.9% to 46.5% this season. Tyler Freeman's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased of late, increasing from 46.5% on the season to 66.7% in the last week.
Ryan McMahon is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup. Batting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Ryan McMahon will have an edge in today's game. Ryan McMahon will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats. In comparison to his 92-mph average last year, Ryan McMahon's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94.2 mph. Ryan McMahon has been hot lately, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 94.2-mph to 97.5-mph in the past week's worth of games.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jordan Beck in the 75th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Jordan Beck is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jordan Beck will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Jordan Beck has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping his 6.6% rate last year to 14.6% this year. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.8°, Jordan Beck has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 23.7° angle in the past week.
Brett Baty is projected to bat 7th on the lineup card in this game. When starting against a righty hurler this year, Brett Baty has been lifted for a pinch-hitter 16% of the time. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of all games today. Brett Baty will be at a disadvantage playing away from home today. When it comes to plate discipline, Brett Baty's ability is quite poor, putting up a 3.55 K/BB rate since the start of last season while checking in at in the 25th percentile.
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of all games today. Brandon Nimmo will be at a disadvantage playing away from home in today's game. Brandon Nimmo has negatively regressed with his Barrel% lately; his 11.1% seasonal rate has lowered to 5.3% over the past 14 days. Brandon Nimmo has posted a .258 BABIP this year, checking in at the 19th percentile.
Francisco Alvarez has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity this season; just compare his 92.5-mph average to last year's 88.7-mph mark.
When starting against a righty on the mound this year, Starling Marte has been replaced by a pinch-hitter 21% of the time. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of all games today. Batting from the same side that Antonio Senzatela throws from, Starling Marte has a tough challenge in today's matchup. Playing on the road generally lessens hitter stats across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which ought to be the case for Starling Marte in today's matchup. Over the past 14 days, Starling Marte's exit velocity on flyballs has fallen off from his seasonal EV of 88.9 mph to 85.8 mph.
Thairo Estrada is projected to bat 2nd on the lineup card in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Thairo Estrada will hold that advantage in today's game.
Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Orlando Arcia will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last week's worth of games, Orlando Arcia's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.2% up to 16.7%. In the past week, Orlando Arcia's 50% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 9.7%.
Tyrone Taylor is penciled in 6th in the batting order in today's game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of all games today. Antonio Senzatela will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Tyrone Taylor today. Playing on the road generally reduces batter metrics across the board due to the lack of home field advantage, which should be the case for Tyrone Taylor today. Last season, Tyrone Taylor had a launch angle of 14.6° on his highest exit velocity balls, but this season he experienced a significant decline to just 9.4°.
In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of all games today. Juan Soto will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's matchup. There has been a significant decline in Juan Soto's launch angle from last year's 10.6° to 6.5° this year. Compared to his seasonal mark of 6.5°, Juan Soto has produced a noticeably lower launch angle (3.1°) over the past 14 days. Placing in the 11th percentile, Juan Soto sports a .243 BABIP this year.
Hitting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Mickey Moniak will have an edge in today's matchup. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Mickey Moniak will hold that advantage in today's game. Mickey Moniak has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 8.6% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the past two weeks. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Mickey Moniak has been unlucky this year. His .277 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .303.
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Luisangel Acuna in the 85th percentile when estimating his BABIP skill. Extreme flyball batters like Luisangel Acuna are generally less successful against extreme flyball pitchers like Antonio Senzatela. By putting up a .317 BABIP since the start of last season, Luisangel Acuna has performed in the 78th percentile.
Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today. Hunter Goodman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats. In the last week, Hunter Goodman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.2% up to 33.3%. Hunter Goodman has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 100.3-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 93.6-mph. Ranking in the 76th percentile, Hunter Goodman sports a .323 BABIP this year.
Ronny Mauricio is projected to bat 7th in the lineup in this game. In terms of temperature and humidity, the weather forecast forecasts the 2nd-best pitching conditions of all games today. The wind projects to be blowing in from CF at 12.8-mph in this contest, the strongest of the day for hurlers. Ronny Mauricio will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team today.
Sam Hilliard has gone over 0.5 in 3 of his last 10 games.
New York Trends
Colorado Trends| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | jessestars | 5-4-1 | +19870 |
| 2 | F-Orrell | 4-5-1 | +17629 |
| 3 | tjansen70 | 7-2-1 | +17280 |
| 4 | FRANKYFUGAZI1 | 6-4-0 | +15550 |
| 5 | billdo | 3-5-2 | +15170 |
| 6 | BundiniBrown | 5-5-0 | +14785 |
| 7 | CigarSt22 | 4-6-0 | +14368 |
| 8 | salgundy | 5-4-1 | +14235 |
| 9 | dashow69 | 3-7-0 | +13880 |
| 10 | braustin1 | 5-5-0 | +13475 |
| All Mets Money Leaders | |||
| Rank | Leader | L10 | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | doomsday07 | 7-2-1 | +28415 |
| 2 | leafs126 | 8-2-0 | +28005 |
| 3 | adgadg222 | 8-2-0 | +26815 |
| 4 | lusvegasluva | 4-6-0 | +23010 |
| 5 | Dogface253 | 7-2-1 | +22855 |
| 6 | moneyformo | 7-3-0 | +21495 |
| 7 | ND21 | 9-1-0 | +21105 |
| 8 | Hoosier | 7-2-1 | +20260 |
| 9 | fishercz | 8-1-1 | +19955 |
| 10 | simoncald | 9-1-0 | +19655 |
| All Rockies Money Leaders | |||
