New York @ Colorado picks

The Juan Soto shuffle is back, so that’s how you know the New York Mets superstar is starting to find his confidence again. There’s no question it’s been a very slow start for the $765 million man, but he’s putting together quality at-bats lately, and the results are finally showing up. Soto has two long balls in his last five games and even had a five-game hitting streak before going hitless across his previous two appearances. That being said, he’ll face Colorado Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela, who has a terrible 7.14 ERA. He’s getting hit around every single time he steps on the hill. Soto is 2 for 4 lifetime against Senzatela, and both hits were bombs. Although his average is better against lefties, Soto’s power has shown up versus right-handers, with nine homers. It wouldn’t surprise me if he continued to terrorize Senzatela tonight.

I’ll finish off my picks with Soto’s teammate. Brandon Nimmo is also struggling offensively, but he has quite the track record against Senzatela. The veteran is 4 for 11 in his career with three long balls. Nimmo also left the ballpark on Thursday against the Dodgers, his 10th of the campaign. Nimmo has two bombs in his last six appearances, and he’s also a lot better against righties. Eight of his homers are with right-handed pitchers on the mound. The Mets are in Denver for this series, and the elevation will help. Also, Nimmo has done most of his damage from a power standpoint on the road. He has just two long balls at Citi Field and eight away from home. A second straight game with a bomb is very much possible tonight for Nimmo.

When assessing his home run talent, Keston Hiura ranks in the 91st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 3rd-weakest among all the teams today.. Keston Hiura will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.

When estimating his home run talent, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brenton Doyle is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Brenton Doyle will hold that advantage in today's game.. Brenton Doyle has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.7-mph figure.. Brenton Doyle has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .259 figure is quite a bit lower than his .313 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When it comes to his home run skill, Ryan McMahon ranks in the 81st percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Ryan McMahon is penciled in 4th in the lineup in this matchup.. Batting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Ryan McMahon will have an edge in today's game.. Ryan McMahon will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which figures to boost all of his stats.. In comparison to his 92-mph average last year, Ryan McMahon's exit velocity has noticeably risen this season, now sitting at 94.2 mph.

The New York Mets infield defense projects as the 4th-weakest among all the teams today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats across the board, and Orlando Arcia will hold that advantage in today's game.. In the last week's worth of games, Orlando Arcia's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 3.2% up to 16.7%.. In the past week, Orlando Arcia's 50% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) shows big improvement over his seasonal rate of 9.7%.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Mickey Moniak in the 81st percentile when assessing his home run skill.. Hitting from the opposite that Kodai Senga throws from, Mickey Moniak will have an edge in today's matchup.. Home field advantage typically improves batter stats in all categories, and Mickey Moniak will hold that advantage in today's game.. Mickey Moniak has made significant gains with his Barrel% lately, upping his 8.6% seasonal rate to 15.4% over the past two weeks.. As it relates to his wOBA and overall offense, Mickey Moniak has been unlucky this year. His .277 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .303.

According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Juan Soto ranks as the 4th-best hitter in MLB.. Juan Soto is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Hitting from the opposite that Antonio Senzatela throws from, Juan Soto will have an advantage in today's game.. The Colorado Rockies have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Juan Soto can likely count on holding the platoon advantage against every reliever all game.. Typically, bats like Juan Soto who hit a lot of groundballs generally hit worse when facing pitchers who also induce a lot of groundballs such as Antonio Senzatela.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Hunter Goodman in the 95th percentile as it relates to his home run skill.. Hunter Goodman is penciled in 3rd in the batting order today.. Hunter Goodman will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's matchup, which should boost all of his stats.. In the last week, Hunter Goodman's Barrel% has experienced a surge, jumping from his seasonal rate of 10.2% up to 33.3%.. Hunter Goodman has seen a significant improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs lately; just compare his 100.3-mph average over the past 14 days to his seasonal average of 93.6-mph.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) ranks Pete Alonso as Major League Baseball's 9th-best home run hitter.. Pete Alonso is projected to bat 4th in the lineup in this game.. The Barrel% of Pete Alonso has significantly improved, with an increase from 13.2% last year to 18.5% this year.. Pete Alonso has seen a big increase in his exit velocity this year; just compare his 94-mph average to last year's 89.7-mph figure.. Pete Alonso's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, rising from 42% to 51.7%.

When assessing his home run talent, Jordan Beck ranks in the 79th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Jordan Beck is projected to hit 1st in the batting order today.. Home field advantage generally improves batter stats across the board, and Jordan Beck will hold that advantage in today's matchup.. Jordan Beck has made significant gains with his Barrel%, upping his 6.6% rate last year to 14.6% this year.. Compared to his seasonal average of 15.8°, Jordan Beck has significantly improved his launch angle in recent games, posting a 23.7° angle in the past week.

When estimating his home run talent, Brenton Doyle ranks in the 78th percentile according to the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. Brenton Doyle is penciled in 5th on the lineup card today.. Home field advantage typically boosts batter metrics across the board, and Brenton Doyle will hold that advantage in today's game.. Brenton Doyle has seen a big improvement in his exit velocity of late; just compare his 92.8-mph average over the past two weeks to his seasonal 90.7-mph figure.. Brenton Doyle has had some very poor luck with his wOBA this year; his .259 figure is quite a bit lower than his .313 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.