Baltimore @ Seattle Picks & Props

This contest is predicted to have the 5th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Gunnar Henderson will be at a disadvantage playing on the visting team in today's game. Over the past week, Gunnar Henderson's exit velocity on flyballs has lowered from his seasonal figure of 92.1 mph to 89.2 mph. Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has declined from last season to this one, decreasing from 14.1% to 8.2%. Gunnar Henderson's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has decreased recently, going from 47.9% on the season to 40% in the last week.

This contest is predicted to have the 5th-most favorable conditions for pitching among all the games scheduled today. Zach Eflin will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Julio Rodriguez in today's matchup. Julio Rodriguez has taken a step back with his Barrel% in recent games; his 8.4% seasonal rate has dropped to 0% in the last week's worth of games. Over the last week, Julio Rodriguez's exit velocity on flyballs has decreased from his seasonal EV of 95 mph to 90.1 mph. Over the last week, Julio Rodriguez's 0% rate of hitting balls at a HR-maximizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has taken a nosedive compared to his seasonal rate of 15.7%.

Dingers are generally more common at parks with shallow fences, and T-Mobile Park has the shallowest among all major league parks. Cole Young will hold the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin in today's game. Cole Young will hold the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Dylan Carlson has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this season (100% of the time), but he is projected to hit 5th in the batting order in this matchup. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Dylan Carlson's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-optimizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased from last year to this one, increasing from 39.1% to 53.1%.

The switch-hitting Leody Taveras will have the advantage of batting from from his good side (0) today against Zach Eflin. Leody Taveras has a 92nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (36.7%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences today. Leody Taveras will benefit from the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to boost all of his stats. Leody Taveras's ability to hit the ball at a BABIP-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has improved lately, rising from 44.4% on the season to 56.3% in the last two weeks' worth of games. The leading projection system (THE BAT X) estimates Leody Taveras's true offensive talent to be a .301, indicating that he has had some very poor luck this year given the .059 gap between that mark and his actual .242 wOBA.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jackson Holliday in the 95th percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Jackson Holliday has primarily hit in the back-half of the lineup this year (60% of the time), but he is penciled in 1st in the lineup in today's game. Jackson Holliday will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Bryan Woo in today's matchup... and even more favorably, Woo has a large platoon split. Jackson Holliday is likely to have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP. Jackson Holliday has a 90th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.8%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Ryan O'Hearn in the 95th percentile when estimating his batting average talent. Ryan O'Hearn is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game. Considering Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Ryan O'Hearn will have a massive advantage hitting from the opposite side of the dish today. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Ryan O'Hearn stands a good chance of holding the advantage against every reliever all game. Ryan O'Hearn has an 84th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.7%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Cal Raleigh in the 95th percentile when it comes to his overall offensive ability. Cal Raleigh is projected to hit 4th in the batting order in today's game. Cal Raleigh pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (43.3% — 100th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Batters such as Cal Raleigh with extreme flyball tendencies are usually more effective when facing pitchers like Zach Eflin who skew towards the groundball end of the spectrum. Cal Raleigh will hold the home field advantage today, which should bolster all of his stats.

Rowdy Tellez will have the handedness advantage over Zach Eflin today. Home field advantage generally boosts batter stats in all categories, and Rowdy Tellez will hold that advantage in today's game. Rowdy Tellez has made big strides with his Barrel%, bettering his 8.1% rate last year to 15.4% this season. Based on Statcast metrics, the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Expected Batting Average (.256) suggests that Rowdy Tellez has suffered from bad luck this year with his .207 actual batting average.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Colton Cowser in the 92nd percentile when it comes to his BABIP talent. Considering Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Colton Cowser will have a big advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners have just 1 same-handed RP in their bullpen, so Colton Cowser can likely count on never facing a bullpen mismatch all game. Colton Cowser has a 77th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (33.6%) and will have a big advantage hitting them out towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences today. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams on the slate today.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Heston Kjerstad in the 81st percentile when estimating his BABIP ability. Given Bryan Woo's large platoon split, Heston Kjerstad will have an enormous advantage batting from the opposite side of the dish today. Heston Kjerstad will probably have an advantage against every reliever for the duration of the game, since the bullpen of the Seattle Mariners only has 1 same-handed RP. Heston Kjerstad has a 95th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (37.8%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards MLB's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams on the slate today.

Ramon Urias is projected to bat 5th in the batting order in today's game. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Ramon Urias's ability to hit the ball at a base hit-maximizing launch angle (between -4° and 26°) has increased lately, increasing from 45.7% on the season to 60% in the last two weeks' worth of games.

When it comes to his overall offensive ability, J.P. Crawford ranks in the 83rd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). J.P. Crawford is projected to hit 1st on the lineup card in today's game. Hitting from the opposite that Zach Eflin throws from, J.P. Crawford will have the upper hand in today's game. Home field advantage typically bolsters batter stats across the board, and J.P. Crawford will hold that advantage in today's game. In the last two weeks' worth of games, J.P. Crawford has significantly improved the launch angle on his highest exit velocity balls: 21.7° compared to his seasonal mark of 13.2°.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Adley Rutschman in the 87th percentile as it relates to his overall offensive skill. Adley Rutschman is projected to hit 2nd on the lineup card in this matchup. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Adley Rutschman has been hot recently, raising his seasonal exit velocity of 90.4-mph to 94.6-mph in the past 14 days. In terms of his wOBA and overall offense, Adley Rutschman has been unlucky this year. His .290 rate falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected wOBA (xwOBA) at .340.

When estimating his overall offensive ability, Jorge Polanco ranks in the 77th percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Jorge Polanco is penciled in 2nd in the batting order in this matchup. Jorge Polanco pulls many of his flyballs (39% — 98th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's game. Extreme flyball batters like Jorge Polanco generally hit better against extreme groundball pitchers like Zach Eflin. Jorge Polanco will benefit from the home field advantage today, which figures to bolster all of his stats.

Miles Mastrobuoni will hold the platoon advantage against Zach Eflin in today's matchup. Miles Mastrobuoni has a 96th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (39.2%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's matchup. Home field advantage generally bolsters hitter stats in all categories, and Miles Mastrobuoni will hold that advantage in today's game. Miles Mastrobuoni has seen a substantial improvement in his exit velocity on flyballs this season; just compare his 91.3-mph average to last year's 88.8-mph mark. Miles Mastrobuoni has suffered from bad luck when it comes to his wOBA this year; his .275 mark is a fair amount lower than his .329 Expected wOBA, based on the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s interpretation of Statcast data.

When assessing his overall offensive skill, Randy Arozarena ranks in the 92nd percentile according to the leading projections (THE BAT X). Randy Arozarena is projected to hit 5th in the lineup in today's game. Randy Arozarena pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (33.5% — 76th percentile) and has the good fortune of hitting them towards baseball's 8th-shallowest LF fences in today's game. Home field advantage generally boosts batter metrics in all categories, and Randy Arozarena will hold that advantage in today's matchup. Randy Arozarena has made significant strides with his Barrel% recently, bettering his 11.6% seasonal rate to 18.5% in the past 14 days.

The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams on the slate today.

Emmanuel Rivera has an 86th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (35.1%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them out towards the game's 4th-shallowest RF fences in today's matchup. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams on the slate today. In terms of his batting average, Emmanuel Rivera has been unlucky since the start of last season. His .239 figure falls considerably below the leading projection system (THE BAT X)'s version of Statcast-based Expected Batting Average (xBA) at .259.

The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Benjamin Williamson in the 92nd percentile when assessing his BABIP talent. Benjamin Williamson has a 98th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (40.3%) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's 4th-shallowest RF fences today. Home field advantage typically boosts batter stats in all categories, and Benjamin Williamson will hold that advantage in today's game.

The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams on the slate today. Jorge Mateo's ability to hit the ball at a HR-optimizing launch angle (between 23° and 34°) has gotten better from last year to this one, rising from 9.7% to 16.7%.

Extreme flyball batters like Maverick Handley tend to perform better against extreme groundball pitchers like Bryan Woo. The Seattle Mariners infield defense profiles as the 6th-worst among all the teams on the slate today.