Los Angeles @ Boston picks
Fenway Park
LAA vs BOS Picks
MLB Picks
Total Home Runs


Quinn Allen
Betting Analyst
While there’s been a lot of drama surrounding Rafael Devers this season, he’s still doing his part offensively. The slugger is hitting .286 with 12 home runs and 52 RBIs so far, leading the way for the Boston Red Sox alongside Alex Bregman.Facing lefties is rarely a strong suit for left-handed hitters, but Devers is hitting .308 against southpaws. While only two of his homers are off lefties, he’s had success against Los Angeles Angels starter Tyler Anderson, who takes the mound in the series opener. Devers is 3 for 7 lifetime with a bomb. He’s also batting .330 at home compared to .246 on the road, with eight homers at Fenway Park. I could see Devers leaving the yard in this contest.
Strikeouts Thrown

Richard Fitts u3.5 Strikeouts Thrown (-115)
Projection 2.7 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) expects Richard Fitts to have a pitch count in today's game, projecting a maximum of 80 pitches.. The #3 park in the majors for suppressing strikeouts, per the leading projection system (THE BAT), is Fenway Park.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Checking in at the 15th percentile, Richard Fitts has compiled a 15% K% since the start of last season.
Total RBIs
MM
Marcelo Mayer o0.5 Total RBIs (+240)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. In the league, Fenway Park's centerfield fences are the shallowest.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. The Los Angeles Angels outfield defense grades out as the 13th-strongest among every team playing today.. Marcelo Mayer will have the benefit of the home field advantage in today's game, which figures to improve all of his stats.
Total RBIs

Rafael Devers o0.5 Total RBIs (+155)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best hitter in baseball.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Rafael Devers has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs

Jorge Soler o0.5 Total RBIs (+150)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Jorge Soler in the 97th percentile when assessing his home run talent.. Jorge Soler is penciled in 4th in the batting order in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Jorge Soler hits a lot of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is a great match for the park considering he'll be hitting towards baseball's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's game.
Total RBIs

Logan O'Hoppe o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Logan O'Hoppe in the 97th percentile when estimating his home run ability.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Logan O'Hoppe pulls a high percentage of his flyballs (34.6% — 86th percentile) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's matchup.. The Barrel% of Logan O'Hoppe has significantly improved, with an increase from 12% last year to 17% this year.
Total RBIs

Carlos Narvaez o0.5 Total RBIs (+160)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Carlos Narvaez is projected to hit 4th on the lineup card in today's game, which would be an upgrade from his 85% rate of hitting in the bottom-half of the batting order this season.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Tyler Anderson throws from, Carlos Narvaez will have the upper hand in today's matchup.. Carlos Narvaez has an 80th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.3%) and has the good fortune of hitting them out towards the game's 3rd-shallowest RF fences today.
Total RBIs

Kristian Campbell o0.5 Total RBIs (+195)
Projection 0.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Kristian Campbell's BABIP ability is projected in the 95th percentile by the leading projection system (THE BAT X).. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Batting from the opposite that Tyler Anderson throws from, Kristian Campbell will have an advantage in today's matchup.. Kristian Campbell has an 85th percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.9%) and will have a big advantage hitting them in the direction of the league's 3rd-shallowest RF fences in today's game.
Total Bases

Rafael Devers o1.5 Total Bases (+120)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best hitter in baseball.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Rafael Devers has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Rafael Devers o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-130)
Projection 2.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
According to the leading projection system (THE BAT X), Rafael Devers ranks as the 16th-best hitter in baseball.. Rafael Devers is penciled in 2nd in the lineup in this game.. The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Rafael Devers has an 82nd percentile opposite-field rate on his flyballs (34.5%) and sets up very well considering he'll be hitting them towards the league's shallowest LF fences in today's game.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Scott Kingery o0.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-150)
Projection 1.5 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) projects Fenway Park as the 3rd-best ballpark in baseball for run-scoring.. The wind projects to be blowing out to LF at 9.2-mph in this game, the 3rd-most-favorable of the day for hitters.. Scott Kingery hits a high percentage of his flyballs to center field (39.2% — 90th percentile) and is fortunate to face the game's 3rd-shallowest CF fences in today's matchup.