Washington @ Arizona picks
Chase Field
WAS vs AZ Picks
MLB Picks
Game Prop
Pick made: one month ago

Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst
Arizona will give the pill to Brandon Pfaadt who is in the bottom fifth percentile in xERA (6.39) and xBA (.315). He'll have a tough time navigating a red-hot Nats lineup that is second in the majors in OPS (.804) over the last 15 days. The D-Backs are fourth in the majors in OPS (.777) and run first inning rate (36.8%) and should be able to get to Washington starter Michael Soroka (5.61 ERA).
Total RBIs

James Wood o0.5 Total RBIs (+175)
Projection 0.7 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in the majors when estimating his BABIP skill.. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Chase Field profiles as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 8° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. James Wood will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Pfaadt today.
Total RBIs

Nathaniel Lowe o0.5 Total RBIs (+170)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects Nathaniel Lowe in the 80th percentile when assessing his BABIP talent.. Nathaniel Lowe is projected to hit 3rd on the lineup card today.. Chase Field profiles as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 8° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Nathaniel Lowe will receive the benefit of the platoon advantage against Brandon Pfaadt in today's matchup.
Total RBIs

Josh Bell o0.5 Total RBIs (+165)
Projection 0.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Josh Bell is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Chase Field profiles as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 8° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Extreme flyball hitters like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.. Josh Bell has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph average.
Total Bases

James Wood o1.5 Total Bases (+130)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in the majors when estimating his BABIP skill.. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Chase Field profiles as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 8° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. James Wood will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Pfaadt today.
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

James Wood o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-120)
Projection 2.6 (Over)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT X) projects James Wood as the best hitter in the majors when estimating his BABIP skill.. James Wood is projected to hit 2nd in the lineup in today's game.. Chase Field profiles as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 8° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. James Wood will have the handedness advantage over Brandon Pfaadt today.
Outs Recorded

Brandon Pfaadt u17.5 Outs Recorded (+135)
Projection 17.3 (Under)
EV Model Rating
The leading projection system (THE BAT) profiles Chase Field as the 3rd-best ballpark in the majors for batting average.. The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 8° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. With 9 batters who bat from the other side in the opposing team's projected batting order, Brandon Pfaadt will not have the upper hand while lacking the platoon advantage in most plate appearances in today's matchup.. Because groundball hitters have a substantial edge over flyball pitchers, Brandon Pfaadt and his 36.4% underlying GB% (according to the leading projection system, THE BAT) will be in a troublesome position in this matchup facing 6 opposing GB batters.. Brandon Pfaadt's fastball velocity has fallen 1.1 mph this year (92.8 mph) below where it was last year (93.9 mph).
Hits, Runs, and RBIs

Josh Bell o1.5 Hits, Runs, and RBIs (-115)
Projection 2.1 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Josh Bell is projected to bat 5th in the lineup in today's game.. Chase Field profiles as the #2 ballpark in the game for lefty batting average, via the leading projection system (THE BAT).. The Chase Field roof projects to be closed today, making the temperature in this contest 8° hotter than the average outdoor game of all games on the slate — favorable for offense.. Extreme flyball hitters like Josh Bell tend to be more successful against extreme groundball pitchers like Brandon Pfaadt.. Josh Bell has seen a significant increase in his exit velocity on flyballs this year; just compare his 96.5-mph average to last season's 92.8-mph average.